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By Micah McCartney
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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday warned against rising Chinese "coercion" and pledged to review her country's defense posture, as well as longstanding constraints on weapons exports.
Why It Matters
Japan, a key U.S. treaty ally in the Indo-Pacific, is in the midst of its most significant military buildup in decades. with defense spending expected to reach 2 percent, double 2022 levels, next month. Tensions with China have further intensified since Takaichi said in November that Japan could intervene in the event of a Chinese blockade of Beijing-claimed Taiwan.
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Takaichi’s agenda was buoyed by a snap election earlier this month in which her Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, secured more than three-quarters of seats in the parliament's lower house. While primarily campaigning on economic stimulus and easing fiscal pressures, Takaichi has also pushed a security agenda and reopened debate over revisions to the Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Newsweek reached out to the prime minister’s office by email with a request for comment.
What To Know
"Japan faces its most severe and complex security environment since World War II," Takaichi said during her first policy speech to Parliament since being reelected as premier this week, citing China’s expanding military footprint, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, according to Kyodo News.
She pledged to amend Japan’s three core security documents this year and to "strategically evolve" the country’s Indo-Pacific posture. That review is expected to include further loosening of Japan’s arms export rules—long a priority of her political mentor, the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
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Japan’s postwar constitution tightly limits the use of military force, and for decades it imposed an effective ban on exporting weapons abroad. The Abe government eased restrictions in 2014 under tight end-use conditions.
Japan has since emerged as a growing defense supplier to regional partners. In 2024, Tokyo announced a landmark deal worth roughly $7 billion to export 11 Mogami-class stealth frigates to Australia. The Philippines has also sought Japanese naval vessels, including Abukuma-class destroyer escorts, as part of its military modernization campaign driven by a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.
Takaichi also vowed to establish a ministerial-level panel to upgrade Japan’s Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office into a more centralized national intelligence agency, citing concerns over "unjustifiable foreign interference." On economic security, she signaled plans to reconstruct supply chains "not dependent on specific countries," per Kyodo.
Japan, like the U.S. and most other countries, remains heavily reliant on rare earth elements—a group of 17 critical minerals essential to advanced technologies ranging from consumer electronics to electric vehicles and precision-guided munitions. China dominates global rare earth processing and earlier this year announced restrictions on exports to Japan as part of its punitive pressure campaign.
What People Are Saying
Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, professor at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, told Newsweek: "Although Prime Minister Takaichi did not talk much about foreign policy during her election campaign, her sweeping victory clearly gives her both the time and political space to withstand China’s pressure on Japan.
"This does not mean that Beijing will reduce its pressure, but the scale of her win allows her to endure a prolonged standoff if necessary and also gives her the flexibility to adjust Japan’s policy in the rapidly changing strategic environment."
Lin Jian, spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying at a February 10 press briefing: "If the Japanese side truly wants to develop the strategic relationship of mutual benefit with China, what it needs to do is simple and clear, that is, retract Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, abide by the four political documents between China and Japan and its own political commitments, and take concrete actions to demonstrate its sincerity for dialogue."
What Happens Next
Despite Takaichi's mandate, some of her more controversial defense ambitions will likely face significant hurdles. Amendments to Japan’s constitution require a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Diet and approval in a national referendum.
The trajectory of U.S.-Japan coordination may also prove consequential. President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi on her election victory, but his administration is also seeking to ease tensions with Beijing on a range of issues. Continued Japanese friction with China could complicate coordination between the two allies.
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