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By Chris Matthews
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Four Democratic senators are being mentioned as possible replacements for Chuck Schumer as the party prepares to elect its Senate leader following Tuesday's midterms.
Brian Schatz, Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen and Cory Booker are the leading alternatives on the prediction market Kalshi, with Schumer facing questions about whether he should remain in charge after nearly a decade at the top.
The New York senator is still the overwhelming favorite to keep his job, but the election could bring a new group of Democrats into the Senate who have already made clear they want somebody else in charge.
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Senate Democrats will hold a leadership election for the next Congress regardless of Tuesday's results. So far, nobody has announced a challenge to Schumer.
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Kalshi gave Schumer a 79 percent chance of winning the position on Tuesday, compared with 13 percent for Schatz, 6.9 percent for Murphy, 4 percent for Van Hollen and 2 percent for Booker. The figures are based on separately traded contracts rather than a poll of Democratic senators.
Schumer has led the party in the Senate since 2017 and plans to run again. If Democrats win control of the chamber, he is widely expected to remain leader.
Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said: “Schumer delivering a Democratic Senate certainly justifies another term as leader.”
However, if the party falls short, questions about his leadership could become harder to ignore.
Brian Schatz
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Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz is the most likely alternative to Schumer, according to Kalshi, although his own plans suggest he is looking at a different job.
Schatz, who serves as chief deputy whip and deputy Democratic conference secretary, has announced that he wants to replace retiring Illinois Senator Dick Durbin as the party's No. 2 in the chamber.
He has worked closely with the party leadership and has a progressive record on climate change and healthcare.
His experience and relationships within the caucus would put him in a strong position if the top job became available.
Chris Murphy
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Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy has been among the Democrats arguing most forcefully that the party needs to change how it takes on President Donald Trump.
Murphy, who has served in the Senate since 2013, has called for a sharper economic message and a more aggressive response to the president's policies.
Although he is currently hospitalized following a stroke on Saturday, he is expected to make a full recovery.
Murphy has built his profile on issues including gun control and foreign policy and helped negotiate bipartisan gun safety legislation. He also serves as a deputy Democratic conference secretary, giving him a place in the party's existing leadership.
At 53, he would represent a generational change from Schumer, who is 75.
Chris Van Hollen
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Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen has something the other three potential successors do not: a public endorsement from a Democratic Senate candidate.
Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee in Michigan, said in August that he wanted Van Hollen to replace Schumer.
Van Hollen has previously run the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, giving him experience raising money and helping elect Democrats in both chambers of Congress.
He has also been an outspoken critic of U.S. policy toward Israel's war in Gaza and has pushed progressive positions on economic inequality.
His record could appeal to Democrats who believe the party needs a change of direction.
Cory Booker
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New Jersey Senator Cory Booker is the fourth-ranked alternative on Kalshi.
Booker, a former Newark mayor who ran for president in 2020, is one of the most recognizable Democrats in the Senate.
He has held his seat since 2013 and was elected chair of the Senate Democratic Strategic Communications Committee in 2024, putting him in a position to help shape the party's public message.
Booker has concentrated much of his work on criminal justice reform, voting rights and economic opportunity.
His national profile could make him an option for senators who want a more prominent public face leading the party.
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Could Schumer Actually Lose?
The biggest threat to Schumer may not be any of the four senators currently attracting attention on Kalshi, but the outcome of Tuesday's elections. Several Democrats seeking Senate seats have already said they want a change at the top.
Illinois nominee Juliana Stratton has called for new leadership, while Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan has also publicly opposed another term for Schumer.
Michigan nominee Abdul El-Sayed has gone further by backing Van Hollen as his preferred replacement.
Maine nominee Troy Jackson has questioned Schumer's ability to reconnect Democrats with working-class voters, while Kansas nominee Adam Hamilton is among those who have opposed him or declined to pledge their support.
Some sitting senators have avoided committing themselves.
Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with the Democrats, and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have not pledged to support Schumer in the next leadership election.
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Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin has called for a new generation of Democratic leaders, although she has not said she would vote against Schumer.
That leaves him facing two very different possibilities.
If Democrats win the Senate, he can argue that his leadership helped deliver a majority few thought possible earlier in the election cycle.
If they lose, particularly after expectations of a Democratic comeback have risen, his critics could have a stronger case for replacing him.
Schumer faced calls to resign from progressive groups in March 2025 after helping Republicans keep the government open rather than risk a shutdown.
Yet despite the criticism, no senator has stepped forward to challenge him. Any rival would need to persuade a majority of Democratic senators to vote for them in a secret ballot.
For now, Schumer has the advantage of incumbency, years of relationships within the caucus and no declared opponent.
Newsweek has contacted Schumer, Schatz, Murphy, Van Hollen and Booker for comment via email.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and Dave Siminoff.
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