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By Micah McCartney
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Dozens of Chinese paramilitary and coast guard ships have flooded into contested waters in the South China Sea this week as the U.S. and its ally the Philippines began their premier military exercise this week.
"Extremely busy around Second Thomas Shoal/Mischief Reef today," wrote Ray Powell, director of the Stanford University–affiliated SeaLight initiative, on X (formerly Twitter). He was referencing real-time ship tracking data that showed Chinese ships nearly crowding the shoal and reef.
Both Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal sit within the Philippines' internationally recognized exclusive economic zone. China, which claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, has militarized Mischief Reef and frequently uses it as a staging ground for its blockades of Philippine supply missions to the nearby Second Thomas Shoal.
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The shoal and reef are approximately 200 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan, one of the focal areas for the 2024 Balikatan military exercise.
The Chinese vessels there now, identifiable through their automatic identification systems, suggest a deliberate show of strength by Beijing, Powell told Newsweek.
He said the numbers of both China coast guard and maritime militia vessels "have been very high all month" throughout the South China Sea. Last week saw a particularly sharp increase due to maritime militia ship rotation, and ship levels have yet to return to normal.
"I suspect they may be posturing to respond to demonstrations of force during U.S.-Philippine exercise activities, though they have also shown great interest in the Philippines' recent hydrographic survey," Powell said. "And of course they remain alert for a resupply of the Philippines' Second Thomas Shoal outpost."
Newsweek reached out by email to the Philippine armed forces and the Chinese Foreign Ministry for comment.
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Also on Tuesday, SeaLight, a maritime transparency project, tracked a spike in Chinese ship numbers around another disputed feature, Scarborough Shoal, which sits northeast of Second Thomas Shoal about 400 miles away. China took control of these Philippine fishing grounds in 2012.
The 2024 edition of the Balikatan, described as the biggest yet, involves nearly 17,000 troops. Most are American and Philippine, but Australian and—in a first for the event—French forces are also taking part. Fourteen other nations are attending as observers.
These drills, which are set to run until May 10, come just weeks after President Joe Biden hosted a first three-way summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
During Marcos' visit, Biden reaffirmed that Washington and Manila's seven-decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty extends to the South China Sea. Beijing has accused the U.S. of disrupting regional stability and using the Philippines as a pawn in efforts to contain China.
The first week of the Balikatan exercise coincided with an international defense summit hosted by China in the northeastern city of Qingdao.
In his remarks at the summit on Monday, Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission, said Beijing "remains committed to resolving maritime disputes with directly concerned countries through friendly consultations, but we will not allow our good faith to be abused."
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