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By John Feng
China Editor
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping has invested a lot of capital in his relationship with President Donald Trump. They’ve held two summits this year and are expected to meet twice more to lock in friendlier ties.
The return on investment has been so good for China that a Democratic sweep in Tuesday’s midterm elections could upset a delicate detente with the United States that has allowed Beijing to quietly advance its agenda in other parts of the world.
Not everything is going China’s way, but an agreement with the White House to forge "a constructive relationship of strategic stability" has provided much-needed ballast for Xi to steady the Chinese economy and clean house in the military a year before his own leadership is up for renewal.
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China won’t comment on the midterms and insists the vote is a U.S. domestic issue, but that doesn’t mean its leaders don’t have a preferred outcome. Beijing has seen Trump’s absolute hold over the Republican Party and would expect him to keep his party’s hawks in check if the GOP wins again.
Xi’s Bet on Trump 2.0
The first Trump administration ended things so bitterly with Beijing and U.S. public opinion on China fell so low during the COVID-19 pandemic that it wasn’t clear relations could ever recover. But Xi has responded to Trump’s personal style of flattering leadership diplomacy with apparent enthusiasm—and it has paid off.
The pomp and ceremony of back-to-back state visits in Beijing and Washington, D.C., have won over Trump and even turned the sentiments of ordinary Americans, whose views on China are softening too. The result is two rival leaders who now rarely stand in each other’s way.
Stability with China has helped Trump secure his desired interests closer to home—in Venezuela and in Greenland—while the U.S. war with Iran has become a useful distraction for Xi as his government pushes its own claims in the Indo-Pacific.
China is familiar with Trump’s brand of transactional diplomacy, rooted in economic gains rather than Western values like human rights or democracy.
An America that is focused on the Western Hemisphere, ready to challenge its oldest allies, and largely indifferent to the Global South suits Beijing just fine—it’s only too happy to lead the global institutions that the U.S. no longer cares to occupy.
What China Could Lose
Trump and Xi’s present pleasantries were secured at their summit in Busan, in South Korea, one year ago, when the two sides agreed to scale back an escalating tariff war in exchange for specific deliverables including a Chinese commitment to buy U.S. soybeans and reduce export controls on rare earth metals.
Washington views the Busan truce through the lens of trade, but Beijing sees it as something bigger. Chinese officials commenting on possible economic sanctions by the U.S. have repeatedly warned that any negative action would go against the personal consensus reached by the two heads of state.
The clearest sign of China’s satisfaction with the new status quo was during talks in September to prolong the Busan deal before its expiration this month. Beijing’s negotiators sought a multiyear extension through late 2028—effectively the end of Trump’s presidency—but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent only approved a two-month extension to January 10.
The Chinese government wanted to secure favorable terms for its exporters over a longer term, but the White House appeared to favor a reappraisal after the midterms—in case Trump’s hand is strengthened and Xi fails to deliver on his promises.
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The White House would retain significant executive powers even if the Democrats took control of the House and Senate, but Trump can expect opposition to his foreign policy agenda at every turn.
He has spent considerable time keeping China sweet to secure more access to the Chinese market for American businesses, but Beijing-skeptic congressional leaders could compel him to take a stronger stand on rights issues and strengthen support for partners like Taiwan, the Chinese-claimed island where America’s economic stake is growing ever larger.
A Democrat-run Congress likely would withhold federal funding or grant it conditionally to limit further military adventures, for example in Cuba, and force Trump to wind down the Iran war. And opposition lawmakers will almost certainly curtail Trump’s popular bargaining chips of sanctions, waivers and trade pacts.
China’s Calculations
China understands the merry-go-round of U.S. politics, and that no agreement with a democratic government is guaranteed to last forever.
Xi has bought time for himself by committing to two more summits with Trump—first at the APEC summit in Shenzhen this month, then at the G20 leaders’ meeting in Miami in December—but he knows a Democrat-led Congress could present obstacles.
Democrats won’t be able to undo the informal Busan truce—and won’t necessarily want to—but it could make a formal trade deal more difficult to get over the line.
"Yet even a change of majority would not necessarily bring the legislative branch closer to Trump’s efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing. It could instead give Democrats another reason to challenge him: that his diplomacy is too accommodating toward China," wrote Yilun Zhang, a researcher with the Institute for China-America Studies, a Beijing-funded think tank that is registered as a nonprofit in Washington, D.C.
"A Democratic victory in one or both chambers would change committee leadership, oversight, and the terms on which Trump must defend his agreements. It would provide little reason to expect Democrats to abandon strategic competition. Even when the parties disagree over particular policies, they continue to share the assumption that the United States must compete with China," Zhang said in a recent analysis.
That China has a preference doesn’t mean it isn’t prepared for a Democratic landslide this week. A divided government in which Republicans and Democrats are locked in domestic infighting for two more years could be convenient for Beijing too.
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