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By Micah McCartney
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Critics say U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin—to be held without Ukraine—will revive an international order centered on great powers.
Russia's quasi-ally China is likely the biggest beneficiary, with Xi Jinping watching the talks closely for lessons that can be applied in a Taiwan context, said Craig Singleton, senior fellow at the Washington–based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Why It Matters
Trump has warned of "severe consequences" if Putin fails to agree to end the war against Ukraine—now in its third year—following Friday's summit at a military base in Anchorage, Alaska. Ukraine has been excluded from the talks.
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European leaders, who have spoken with Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, say they hope the talks will be fruitful but have cast doubt on the chances without Kyiv's involvement, cautioning in a joint statement last week that "international borders must not be changed by force."
Newsweek reached out to the White House and to the Russian, Chinese, and Taiwanese foreign ministries via emailed request for comment.
What To Know
"Beijing reads Alaska as validation of Trump's great-power bargaining instinct—Russia, China, and the U.S. treated as coequal poles, with spheres-of-influence logic back in play," Singleton said in an FDD email shared with Newsweek.
"That lets Xi applaud peace from the sidelines, risk nothing, and study the precedent for how it might translate to Asia before engaging."
From Beijing's perspective, excluding Zelensky signals to Moscow that it may be able to keep the Ukrainian territory it has seized in any peace deal, while also implying that great powers can alter borders by force, the analyst said.
Any such "permissive" deal would damage trust in Washington among allies and partners such as Taiwan, and could embolden China to further ramp up military pressure on its neighbor.
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China claims Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to unite with it—by force if necessary. While the U.S. does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it is required to provide weapons to the island democracy under Congress' Taiwan Relations Act.
Officials in both the Trump and Biden administrations have urged greater efforts to arm Taiwan to the teeth, arguing this is the best hope of deterring China from invading, which would roil tech supply chains and poke a hole in the so-called "First Island Chain" of Pacific allies.
Singleton warned against setting a precedent for "deals-over-deterrence" in Alaska.
"If Washington is perceived as 'selling out' Ukraine, Beijing will learn a simple lesson: coercion pays and costs are containable," he wrote.
"In that case, Beijing may step-up People's Liberation Army incursions around Taiwan and intensify gray-zone pressure to gauge just how much stability Washington will trade for silence," he added, using a term for coercive actions that stop short of war.
Trump has already demonstrated some willingness to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, according a Financial Times report in July citing sources familiar with the matter.
The White House reportedly denied a request by the island's president, Lai Ching-te, to make a stopover in New York en route to a tour of Taiwan's Latin American allies—a move widely viewed as being intended to sweeten the pot in ongoing trade negotiations with Beijing.
What People Are Saying
Volodymyr Zelenksy wrote on Telegram Wednesday: "Pressure on Russia is working. There is no alternative to peace. Clear results are needed. Together, we can ensure this."
President Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday: "Very unfair media is at work on my meeting with Putin. Constantly quoting fired losers and really dumb people like [Trump's former national security advisor] John Bolton, who just said that, even though the meeting is on American soil, 'Putin has already won.' What's that all about? We are winning on EVERYTHING."
Lin Jian, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told reporters Tuesday: "We hope all parties concerned and stakeholders will take part in the negotiation process in due course and reach a fair, lasting and binding peace agreement acceptable to parties concerned at an early date."
What's Next
Zelensky said Trump had had suggested the pair hold a phone conversation following the Alaska summit.
The Ukrainian leader has ruled out conceding occupied territory to Russia as part of any agreement—a major Kremlin demand—pointing out this would violate Ukraine's constitution.
Top U.S. defense and intelligence officials have warned Xi may move against Taiwan by the end of the decade.
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