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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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In a possible AFC Championship Game preview, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs take on Josh Allen and the Bills in the marquee matchup of Week 11.
The Chiefs are slight road favorites despite their 9-0 start.
Buffalo, which is 8-2 and in the midst of a five-game winning streak, has thrived offensively this season despite losing top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason.
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Meanwhile, Kansas City is winning games in a variety of ways thanks to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's outstanding D.
This matchup kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Odds
Below are the odds for Chiefs vs. Bills in three markets: the spread, moneyline and total.
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ESPN BET
,500 FIRST-BET OFFER
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,000 FIRST BET
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Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Breakdown
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Chiefs opened the season with a thrilling win over Baltimore that nearly slipped away at the last second, and they've continued to come through in the clutch every week.
Kansas City beat both the Saints and 49ers by 10 points or more back in Weeks 5 and 7, but their other seven wins this year were all one-score games.
The Chiefs offense has made the plays it has had to, but it has struggled at times amid injuries to starting running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown.
On the other side of the football, the Kansas City defense has been as good it was a year ago in the playoffs, if not better. Just two teams this season -- the Bengals and the Buccaneers -- have scored more than 20 points on the Chiefs, who are allowing just 17.9 points per game.
Thanks to an elite run defense that is consistently forcing teams into third-and-long, the Chiefs rank in the top five or top 10 in the NFL in nearly every major defensive metric, and they've been successful despite forcing just eight turnovers on the year.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
After relying on Allen to lead one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league for the last few years, the Bills have emphasized the running game this year. That approach has paid off, as Buffalo averages 29 points per game despite Allen throwing for 300-plus yards just once in 10 games.
Efficiency has been huge a part of the formula for Buffalo, which is top-10 in both red zone offense and red zone defense. The Bills have scored 27 touchdowns on 43 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line, and defensively, they've limited opponents to just 17 TDs in 36 red-zone possessions.
In a game with two quarterbacks capable of moving the football, Buffalo will have a big advantage if RB James Cook (eight rushing TDs) and Allen (four rushing TDs) can once again finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals.
Defensively, the Bills are giving up yards, especially on the ground, but they've played well enough in the red zone to remain top-10 in the league in scoring defense.
The biggest question for Buffalo is how it will play against a good opponent like Kansas City.
The Bills are 7-0 against opponents that currently have losing records, but just 1-2 against teams with winning records. They've won five in a row since losing to Baltimore and Houston in Weeks 4 and 5, but those victories came against the Jets, Titans, Seahawks, Dolphins and Colts, none of whom have won more than four games.
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
Early this week, it was hard to resist backing Allen and the Bills to continue their regular-season success against the Chiefs. Allen's record vs. K.C. is 3-1 in the regular season, but 0-3 in the postseason.
But after taking a closer look at the Bills' schedule and how dependent they've been on lights-out play in the red zone, Mahomes and the outstanding Kansas City defense look awfully tempting at plus-money.
Allen has proven he can get the job done this year regardless of what's around him, but he'll sorely miss TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) and WR Keon Coleman (wrist) in this game, especially given that he'll likely need a big day through the air against an elite run D like Kansas City's.
Without Kincaid (first on the Bills in targets, second in receptions) or Coleman (third in both targets and receptions), expect Allen to struggle to move the football.
The Chiefs are due for a loss at some point, but the edge they should have in the ground game on both sides of the ball makes them a tempting play on the moneyline this afternoon. We also like both teams to start off slow offensively, which makes the first half under enticing.
Chiefs vs. Bills Best Bets
- Chiefs moneyline (+112 at FanDuel) 1 unit
- First half under 23.5 (-120 at FD) 0.50 units
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