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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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Proposition 50, California's redistricting plan to get more Democratic representatives, is likely to pass, recent polls have indicated.
According to polling conducted over the last two months, voters are likely to pass an amendment put forth by California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, that would temporarily revise its congressional map, in a move expected to boost Democrats in future elections.
Newsweek reached out to the California GOP by email and left a voicemail at Newsom's office to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
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Why It Matters
If passed, the new congressional map would create more Democratic seats in California, thus neutralizing a Republican-favoring redistricting plan advancing in Texas.
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If there are more California Democrats, this would also help the Democrats more broadly in the November 2026 midterms. Republicans hold a narrow 219-213 majority, meaning a net loss of just six seats would cost them control of the chamber. If the Democrats gain the House, they will be able to control the passage of key legislation and act as a roadblock to the Trump administration's priorities.
What Is Proposition 50?
The proposed redistricting targets five Republican representatives. In August, the state assembly passed the new map by 57 to 20, and the state senate also approved the new map on a party-line vote of 30 to 8.
California is a reliably Democratic state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 20 points last November and so Democrats may be confident that the proposal, which would be temporary and last through the 2026, 2028 and 2030 election cycles, will pass.
If the proposal passes, in 2032, after the 2030 Census, California's independent commission would then draw a new map.
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What Do Polls Say?
According to September polling by Emerson College, 51 percent of people said they would support the ballot measure while 34 percent said they were against it. An additional 15 percent were undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 15 to 16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Meanwhile, a co/efficient poll, first shared with Punchbowl News, found that 54 percent support the plan while 36 percent oppose it. This poll of 976 likely voters was conducted from September 29 to October 1 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.14 percentage points.
An earlier survey from Newsom's pollster David Binder found that 57 percent of California voters were in support of the proposal, while 35 percent opposed. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from August 10 to 14, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies found in August that 48 percent were in favor of the proposal and 32 percent opposed it.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, William Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri, said: "It is my firm assessment that the polling results, indicating majority approval for its passage, based on the polling results of these surveys, do appear to accurately reflect the current mood of the California voters, demonstrating their firm support and approval for a temporary measure to be passed in California, in an effort to offset the potentially negative effects and impact on the upcoming 2026 midterm congressional elections of the recently passed, gerrymandered-redistricting legislation, passed by the Republican-controlled state legislature in the State of Texas.
"Perhaps, no other state, other than the State of California and its residents, many of whom who are or have been immigrants or relatives of immigrants of varying legal statuses, has either been more consistently targeted or directly singled out, for testing and implementing various types of often highly controversial and experimental immigration enforcement policies, focused on targeting and making California an example, frequently with negative consequences and implications, by the current Republican-led administration. So, it is not at all surprising that recent polling results have indicated firm support and approval for the affirmative passage of proposition 50."
California Governor Gavin Newsom said in August: "We're neutralizing what occurred, and we're giving the American people a fair chance, because when all things are equal, and we're all playing by the same rules, there's no question that the Republican Party will be the minority party in the House of Representatives next year."
Representative Kevin Kiley, a California Republican, wrote in an August statement: "California voters are overwhelmingly opposed to Newsom's plan to sideline our state's Citizens Redistricting Commission. Yet the Supermajority Legislature chose to ignore this and will now spend $250 million trying to convince voters to reverse themselves and return power to politicians. The political leadership of California has never been more out of touch with the people of California."
What Happens Next
The redistricting ballot will be decided in a November 2025 special election. Meanwhile, the midterm elections take place the following year, in November 2026.
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