...
By Jesus Mesa
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
California voters are deciding Tuesday who will replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, with Democrats Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer along with Republican Steve Hilton locked in a tight three-way race for two spots on the November ballot.
Polls close at 8 p.m. PT. The June 2 top-two contest sends the two highest vote-getters to a November general election, regardless of party. Newsom cannot seek a third term.
What Do Final California Governor Race Polls Show?
Becerra holds a narrow lead in the final surveys, though analysts warn the race remains too close to call.
Read More on Politics
The RealClearPolitics polling average puts Becerra at 23.8 percent, Republican Steve Hilton at 23.3 percent and Democrat Tom Steyer at 21.5 percent a spread of fewer than 3 points across the top three.
The final Emerson College poll gives Becerra a cleaner advantage at 28 percent, followed by Steyer at 22 percent and Hilton at 21 percent. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey shows Becerra at 25 percent, Hilton at 21 percent and Steyer at 19 percent. The Public Policy Institute of California has Becerra at 23 percent, Hilton at 20 percent and Steyer at 15 percent.
"Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday's primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
A McLaughlin and Associates poll conducted for the California Post shows a different picture, with Hilton and Steyer tied at 25 percent and Becerra at 19 percent, though the Los Angeles Times does not consider McLaughlin a select pollster.
One variable complicating pre-election modeling: Democrats are returning mail ballots at a slower rate than Republicans, according to data from political firm PDI, a dynamic analysts say may reflect strategic voting calculations rather than disengagement.
Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown is predicting lower-than-normal turnout. "Simply because there are so many people on the ballot — and none are superstars," Brown says. "You don't have a Newsom or a Jerry Brown on the ballot."
What Do Final California Governor Race Odds Show?
Prediction markets are pricing Becerra as a heavy favorite to win in November.
As of Tuesday, Polymarket has him at roughly 70 percent. Kalshi puts him at 72 percent. Steyer sits in second on both platforms at just under 20 percent. Hilton trails at around 9 percent on the general election market.
The gap between Hilton's polling numbers and his market odds reflects what traders are pricing separately: the primary versus November. A Republican has not won a statewide race in California since 2006.
Who Is Steve Hilton?
Hilton, 46, is a British-born conservative commentator and former senior adviser to Prime Minister David Cameron who moved to Silicon Valley in 2012 before becoming a Fox News host. He is a naturalized U.S. citizen running for office for the first time.
...
His campaign pitch, branded "Califordable," centers on dramatic cost-of-living promises: gas at $3 a gallon, electricity bills cut in half through deregulation and no state income tax for Californians earning under $100,000. He also calls for rolling back the state's climate regulations and slashing what he describes as government bureaucracy.
Trump endorsed Hilton earlier this year, a move that effectively sidelined rival Republican Chad Bianco and consolidated most of the GOP vote behind him.
"I think everyone knows it's time for change in California," Hilton tells ABC7. "You just look at life, how hard it is for regular working people, for small business owners."
Who Is Xavier Becerra?
Becerra, 67, is a Sacramento native who spent more than two decades representing Los Angeles in Congress before serving as California attorney general and then as secretary of Health and Human Services under former President Joe Biden.
...
He entered the race as a relative afterthought—polling at 5 percent in the Berkeley IGS's March survey—before surging after U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell withdrew in April amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Becerra pitches himself as the candidate best positioned to take on the Trump administration, citing 122 lawsuits he filed against Trump's first-term White House as attorney general. He is calling for a state of emergency to freeze utility and insurance rates.
"Politicians like to talk about standing up to Donald Trump, but I'm the one candidate for Governor who has fought him on behalf of Californians and won," Becerra says on his campaign website.
If elected, he would be California's first Latino governor since the 19th century.
Who Is Tom Steyer?
Steyer, 68, is a San Francisco billionaire who founded Farallon Capital Management before stepping away from finance in 2012 to focus on climate and political causes, including NextGen America, a progressive political action committee. He ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, qualifying for several debates before dropping out after the South Carolina primary.
...
Steyer is self-funding roughly $200 million of his gubernatorial campaign and is running on a progressive platform that includes single-payer healthcare. He casts himself as an outsider beholden to no corporate interests—a pitch that presents an acknowledged tension in a party that has long warned against billionaire influence in politics.
His campaign bus carries the slogan: "All aboard for a California you can afford."
Can a Republican Flip California?
Even if Hilton makes the top two, winning in November is a separate and steeper challenge.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California by nearly two to one. No Republican has won a statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger was reelected governor in 2006. Prediction markets price Hilton's general election chances at roughly 9 percent.
Earlier in the cycle, the prospect of an all-Republican November ballot was real: With a crowded Democratic field and two consolidated Republican candidates, analysts warned that vote-splitting could lock Democrats out entirely. Trump's endorsement of Hilton ended that scenario, stranding Bianco and narrowing the Republican threat to a single lane.
"Democrat voters know that whichever Democrat candidate makes it into the runoff will be our next governor," says Kevin Callan of PDI. "That adds more weight to their decision."
Hilton argues voter frustration with 16 years of uninterrupted Democratic governance is enough to rewrite the map. "I think it's just obvious that these 16 years of Democrat progressive governance have been an unmitigated disaster, and a very expensive one," he told Newsweek. Most analysts remain skeptical. But with the primary this close, even a narrow shift in late ballot returns could scramble the November field entirely.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines