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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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The WNBA is about to go on a break for about a month due to Olympic play, but there is still one more game to dive into for todays WNBA betting slate.
Of course, the game we are talking about is the Fever vs. Wings game, a matchup that will include the WNBAs biggest star in Caitlin Clark. Here is how we are betting that matchup.
Play 1: Caitlin Clark Over 19.5 Points (-115) FanDuel
It's always square taking a Caitlin Clark over prop in really any capacity, but it is a good play in this game when you dig into the matchup. For starters, she is going up against a horrible defense in the Wings. Over the last seven games they have the worst defensive net rating in the WNBA, while allowing the highest opponent effective FG% as well. So, they are already a bad defense overall, and they are also bad in the specific ways in which Caitlin Clark scores.
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Clark scores the majority of her points as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, and the Wings allow the most points in the entire WNBA to PnR ball-handlers. Clark scores about 27% of her points via pick-and-rolls. From there, the area in which Clark scores the second-most of her points is free throws, scoring about 20% of her points at the line, and on the season the Wings are allowing the second-most points in the WNBA at the line. This has still been the case recently, as over the past seven games they are fouling at the second-highest rate in the WNBA. Lastly, Clark scores 16% of her points, the third-most, via transition and the Wings have the worst transition defense in the WNBA. And it has still been bad recently, as over the past seven games they have allowed the most fast-break points in the WNBA.
This is a number that Clark has only cleared in only two of her last ten games, but in that stretch she is averaging 18 points, and is consistently flirting with this over. She has ended with exactly 19 points, 18 points, and 17 a couple times. So, while she is not consistently going over, she is consistently getting close and this is the perfect matchup for her to go off going up against this Wings defense.
Play 2: Arike Ogunbowale over 22.5 Points (-115) DraftKings
This line was initially priced at 19.5 when the books first put out odds, but was quickly bet up to 22.5 where it is now. Even at the higher price, this is an over worth taking. This play falls in the same category as Clark in that this is a great matchup and we also get the benefit of fading recent results here as well, as Ogunbowale has been struggling in her past couple games. She has gone under this number in four straight games now, but heading into this four game stretch she had gone over in four of five and in five of seven.
After struggling this much and in what is a pretty good matchup, now is the time to buy in on her point prop. Her 3-point prop is a good look as well, as if you look at her struggles over the past four games you can almost directly attribute that to her shooting from beyond the arc. She has shot 1-for-7, 2-for-6, 2-for-8 and 2-for-9. With her shooting that bad over the past four games, it makes sense that her points have dropped as well. So, we are fading recent results here, while also betting on a juicy matchup against a bad Fever defense.
Despite her shooting struggles recently, Ogunbowale is one of the best volume 3-point shooters in the WNBA, especially from above-the-break, and the Fever do not guard the 3-point line well. They have given up the third-most points to above-the-break 3-pointers in the WNBA, and if you look over the past seven games they have allowed the most above-the-break 3-pointers in the WNBA. So, this is another point in favor of her 3-point prop as well, but the price was better on her points and that is a little bit safer as Ogunbowale scores a lot as the pick-and-roll ball-handler and via fouls, two areas in which the Fever are weak.
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