...
By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Caitlin Clark gets all the attention in the WNBA, but the team she plays for, the Indiana Fever, are having a tough start to the year. On Thursday, they host the Atlanta Dream in what should be a winnable game in which they are short 2.5-point underdogs.
The game tips off at 7PM ET on ESPN3, and here is how we are betting it!
Play 1: Game Total Under 162.5 (-110) BetMGM
First up we have a play on the main line, riding with the under in a matchup where we do not foresee a ton of points being scored. Admittedly, taking an under in a Fever game is going to feel scary as they have the worst defensive Net Rating in the WNBA, unsurprisingly allowing the most points per game as well at 89.3 PPG, but part of that has to do with their brutal schedule to start the season.
Read More on Betting
They've had three games against the New York Liberty (best offense in the WNBA according to Net Rating) and have allowed 99 PPG in those three games, with another matchup against the Seattle Storm (fastest pace in the WNBA) in which they allowed 103 points, and then 99 points to the back-to-back champs in the Las Vegas Aces. Overall, they have played 13 games, the majority of which have come against the best offenses in the WNBA.
In more reasonable matchups we've seen the Fever allow 73 points to the Sparks (fourth-worst offense in the WNBA), 70 points to the Sky (fifth-worst offense in the WNBA) and 83 points to the Mystics (worst offense in the WNBA). The Dream certainly fit the category as one of the worst offenses in the WNBA, as they have the second-worst offensive Net Rating, have the second-worst effective field-goal percentage while scoring the second-fewest points per game as well. The Dream also play at the third-slowest pace in the WNBA as well, which just limits scoring overall.
On the other side, the Dream have a solid defense, and particularly do a good job guarding above-the-break 3-pointers which the Fever -- and Caitlin Clark specifically -- love to take. Overall, the Dream have the fifth-best defensive Net Rating in the WNBA and are fifth in opponent effective field-goal percentage as well.
Play 2: Kelsey Mitchell over 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-135) Bet365
Despite the fact that we are going with the full game to go under, we are riding with Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell to make at least two 3-pointers in this one. This is a prop that Mitchell has hit in eight of 13 games so far this season, and five times has actually hit three 3-pointers. She is also coming off a 1-for-5 from deep game last time out against the Sun, which makes this a great opportunity to bet on positive regression.
Mitchell had made a trio of 3-pointers in two straight games heading into that matchup against the Sun so it was only natural for that hot shooting to end. Furthermore, the Sun are a phenomenal defensive team, specifically at guarding the 3-point line, allowing the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the WNBA, while allowing the 2nd-fewest 3-point attempts as well.
Tonight? Mitchell has a great matchup against the Dream who allow the most corner 3-point attempts in the WNBA. Mitchell, meanwhile, takes the second-most corner 3s on the Fever and also the 2nd-most above-the-break 3-pointers as well. So, all we need her to do is make one from the corner -- which she should be able to do in this matchup -- then make one of her average of five above-the-break 3-point attempts and this prop is green for us.
Play 3: Tina Charles Over 8.5 Rebounds (-112) FanDuel
For our final prop of the day, let's back the Dream center to clear the boards tonight. This is a number that Charles has gone over in 5 of 10 games, twice getting exactly to the eight rebound number which just would have hooked us, and four times she has gotten to double-digit rebounds.
This is correlated with the under play, in that if there are a lot of missed shots and not a lot of scoring the opportunity for rebounds will increase. Charles is the starting center for the Dream, and she leads the team in rebounds per game by a pretty wide margin, averaging nine per game, and the next closest teammate of hers averages about five per game.
The reason she is a good bet to cash nine or more rebounds is the Fever are not great at scoring around the rim, which is where Charles racks up the most of her rebounds. The Fever shoot 61% in the restricted area, which is slightly below average, while shooting 36.4% in the paint but non-restricted area, which is another number that is slightly below-average. The more misses on shots close to the basket means more rebound opportunities for Charles, and she is not one to defer any type of rebound opportunity.
Charles also could get a good amount of offensive rebounds in this game as well. She averages the 13th-most offensive rebounds in the WNBA, and the Fever have the worst rebound rate in the entire WNBA, while allowing their opponents have the third-highest offensive rebound rate in the WNBA. Charles should rack up the boards in this one.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines