...
By Anna Commander
News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
A new statewide poll for Florida's gubernatorial race shows Republican Representative Byron Donalds and Democrat candidate David Jolly are tied, underscoring a seemingly competitive race to succeed term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis.
The findings come in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024 against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, and where no Democrat has won the governorship in over 20 years.
Newsweek reached out to Jolly's and Donalds' campaigns on Monday for comment.
Read More on News
Why It Matters
Florida, once a battleground evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, zoomed rightward over the past decade and is now seen as a reliably Republican state. An influx of conservative retirees into the state, as well as Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, helped turn the state into a conservative stronghold.
However, Democrats are hoping to make the state, home to more than 23 million residents, competitive once again in November's midterms. They believe Trump’s declining approval rating may bolster their chances in more conservative states. Historically, the president's party loses seats in the midterms.
...
What To Know
Trump, a resident of Florida, endorsed Donalds last February, prompting the congressman to officially throw his name into the race. In a recent speech in Florida, the president praised Donalds as a "fighter" and said in part that "he's so far ahead in the polls."
Jolly, a frequent Trump critic, represented Florida's 13th Congressional District in the House of Representatives from 2014-2017 as a Republican. In 2018, Jolly announced he was leaving the GOP, and in April 2025, he registered as a Democrat to launch his bid for Florida's governor.
According to the poll by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI), Donalds and Jolly landed 40 percent of the prospective vote, while 16 percent are unsure. Jolly landed his biggest support among 18 to 29-year-olds, while Donalds landed his biggest support with those aged 65 and up and men, according to the poll.
By race and ethnicity, Donalds' biggest supporters are white with no college education, with 47 percent, and Jolly gained the most among Asian voters with 70 percent of the vote.
...
The poll surveyed 687 likely statewide voters on April 27, with a margin of error of 3.7 percent.
TPSI's poll also showed Republican candidate James Fishback's chances against Jolly, with Fishback at 43 percent and Jolly at 38 percent. The survey notes that 17 percent were undecided.
In a previous survey taken at the end of March by Emerson College Polling, Donalds landed 44 percent of the vote compared to Jolly's 39 percent. The poll shows that 15 percent are undecided. The poll was taken from March 29-31, among 1,125 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Who Are the Two Potential 2026 Florida Gubernatorial Candidates?
Donalds, the Republican candidate in the Florida gubernatorial race, currently lives in Naples, Florida, with his wife Erika and their three sons. He graduated from Florida State University with a Bachelor of Arts in Finance and Marketing in 2002. He was then elected to the Florida House of Representatives, serving as the PreK-12 Quality Subcommittee Chair in 2018-2019 and as the Insurance and Banking Subcommittee’s Chairman in 2019-2020. During this time, he was mainly focused on elder affairs, criminal justice reform and child access to education. Since 2020, Donalds has been serving the people of Florida’s 19th Congressional District.
His main priorities as governor, according to his campaign website, are the Second Amendment, school choice, fiscal sanity, affordability, secure borders, law and order, improved infrastructure, environmental protection and a limited federal government.
Donalds wrote on X last month: "My commitment to Floridians: the state will be efficient with the resources you have given us. The people of Florida demand no less. Your government is going to be responsible and ruthlessly efficient with the dollars you trust us with."
Jolly lives with his wife, Laura and their young family in Pinellas County, where he served in Congress from 2014-2017. During his time in Congress, his priorities were helping veterans and seniors, supporting law enforcement, protecting the environment and bringing resources back to Florida. Over the past 8 years, he has been a political contributor to MSNBC/MS Now.
His gubernatorial campaign is focused on the affordability and insurance crisis, Florida’s schools and access to universities, a campaign for finance and ethics reform, strengthening Florida’s economy, restoring reproductive freedom, investing in climate resiliency, restoring services for veterans, reducing gun violence, home rule and direct democracy, fighting crimes, affordable healthcare, and diversity, according to his website.
In an X post last month, Jolly wrote: "Floridians are ready to move past the division and the daily political games. They want leadership focused on real results, real solutions, and a future that works for everyone."
When Is the Florida Gubernatorial Primary Election?
Florida's primary is set for August 18, 2026.
Forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as being safe or solid for Republicans.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines