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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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You really do have to feel for the Bills, who seem primed to make a Super Bowl run year after year, but have been unable to get over the hump. In this case, the hump is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who has beaten the Bills in the playoffs three out of the past four years.
2024 is expected to be a season in which the Bills take a step back. They lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, with the biggest names being wide receivers Stefon Diggs, who was traded to the Texans, and Gabe Davis, who signed with the Jaguars in free agency.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Futures Odds
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The Bills have entered the season as a top-three betting favorite to win the Super Bowl each of the past three seasons, but that is not the case this year. They have the seventh-best odds to win the Super Bowl overall, with the fourth-best odds in the AFC. In order, the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals are all ahead of the Bills in the AFC, according to oddsmakers.
Buffalo is the betting favorite to win its division, but with the best price being offered at +165, the books are telling you that they think the Bills have less than a 50% chance to win the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Betting Outlook
For the first time since the 2019 season, the Bills have question marks surrounding the state of their pass-catchers, and whether their defense can bounce back after taking a step back in 2023.
10.5 does feel like a good spot for their win total, so let's dive into our thoughts on the Bills and whether they can cash the over on 10.5 wins.
Can Josh Allen make up for lack of receiving options?
Gone are Diggs and Davis, who made up 42% of Allen's targets from last year, with a total of 253 targets. Only the Chargers had more vacated targets from last year's team to this year than the Bills. Their top three projected receivers for 2024 are rookie Keon Coleman, free-agent signee Curtis Samuel, and last year's third receiver, Khalil Shakir.
The Bills are hoping that second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid can make a leap after an excellent rookie campaign, but that is still a projection. Overall, PFF gives the Bills the 27th-ranked receiving weapons (WRs + TEs), and it is hard to argue with that ranking considering all the unknowns.
With that said, the Bills do have pass-catching talent at running back, as James Cook is a good receiving weapon out of the backfield. He received 18% of the targets last year, for a total of 62 (including the playoffs), with four receiving touchdowns.
Luckily for the Bills, Josh Allen is a fantastic quarterback. PFF has him as the fourth-ranked QB heading into the 2024 season, behind Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
Allen led the NFL with 41 big-time throws last season (including playoffs), according to PFF, while also posting a career low 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate. He also scored the most rushing touchdowns of any QB with 18, and added the second-most first-down rushes with 66.
Allen will need one or more of these weapons to step up if the Bills want to have a top-five offense, but he is capable of putting the offense on his back in a way that few QBs can.
What will Bills defense look like?
The Bills had the best defensive DVOA in 2021 and the second-best defensive DVOA in 2022, but they took a step back last year, with the 12th-ranked defense and the 28th-ranked passing defense, again according to DVOA.
A lot of this had to do with injuries. The Bills lost top CB Tre'Davious White for the season in Week 4 last year, and top linebacker Matt Milano was lost for the season in Week 5, while defensive lineman DaQuan Jones tore his pec in Week 10 and missed the rest of the year.
With all this being said, Bills head coach Sean McDermott is a respected defensive mind, and there are reasons to believe this unit can return to form in 2023. PFF gives the Bills the third-best secondary in NFL heading into 2024, as they still boast a lot of talent at DB despite losing a couple starters, including White, this offseason.
They return three cornerbacks who produced a PFF coverage grade above 81 last year in Christian Benford, Rasul Douglas and nickel Taron Johnson, with Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin listed as the starting safeties entering this season.
Overall, the Bills are expected to have a mediocre defense in 2024, but it would not be a complete surprise if McDermott was able to coach up the unit to a top-seven level.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Best Bets
- Win Total: Over 10.5 Games (+130) DraftKings
- Bills to Win AFC East (+180) DraftKings
Despite the personnel changes, the Bills are still the best bet to win the AFC East (especially at the price of +180 odds) while also winning 11 games. The Bills have won 11-plus games for four straight years now, and they finished 2023 with the third-best DVOA in the NFL and the best weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to the end of the season.
Losing Diggs and Davis will definitely hurt, but we have seen top offenses run through tight ends before, and Kincaid has the potential to be this type of receiving tight end.
At the end of the day, having an elite QB like Josh Allen wins football games, and sometimes it is as simple as that, so we will be riding with the Bills to win their division while reaching at least 11 wins this season.
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