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Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul has a 10-point lead over Republican Bruce Blakeman in New York's gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Siena University.
New York has long been viewed as one of the most Democratic states in the country, but recent cycles have seen Democrats’ margins shrink in the state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the Empire State by fewer than 13 points, down from President Joe Biden’s 23-point victory in 2020.
Hochul had a closer-than-expected race in 2022, defeating then-Representative Lee Zeldin by only about 6 points. That relatively poor showing, as well as recent trends, have fueled Republicans’ hopes of making the governor's race competitive this year. Republicans will also work to tie Hochul and other moderate Democrats to the more progressive lawmakers elected in New York City’s primaries, many of whom identify as democratic socialists.
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But Democrats have noted that Hochul is more well-known and popular compared to her last election, and that the national environment looks for them to be better because of President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating, the unpopular Iran war and growing concerns about the economy and cost of living.
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Hochul’s Lead Shrinks in New York Governor's Race
Hochul has a 10-point lead over Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, in the new poll, which surveyed 811 likely voters August 3-6, with 49 percent support to Blakeman’s 39 percent.
That marks a tightening race from their June poll, when Hochul had a 20-point lead, 52 percent to 32 percent. Hochul led by 16 points, 49 percent to 33 percent, in April, and 13 points, 47 percent to 34 percent, in March. Blakeman’s 39 percent support is his highest vote share in a Siena poll. Previous polling sampled registered, not likely, voters.
The new poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the sample who answered the core questions.
Other Democrats performed better than Hochul in the poll. In the attorney general's race, Democratic incumbent Letitia James held an 18-point lead over Republican Saritha Komatireddy, 54 percent to 36 percent. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli held a 23-point lead over Republican Joseph Hernandez.
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Boris Heersink, professor of political science at Fordham University, told Newsweek that it is “a little surprising to see Hochul do worse in this poll than the other Democratic candidates.”
“But overall, a 10-point lead is still a very comfortable one and Hochul is doing better in this poll than she did in the 2022 race. It seems extremely unlikely that Hochul will lose in November; the electorate in the state is still comfortably majority Democrat,” he said.
Joseph Viteritti, the Thomas Hunter professor of public policy at Hunter College, told Newsweek that Hochul still has a “safe lead” but it’s not surprising that Blakeman is “picking up momentum as he gains wider recognition among potential voters.”
Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki told Newsweek that the choice in the race is "crystal clear.
"Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets at every opportunity, invested billions in public safety, and stood up against Donald Trump’s endless attacks on this state—‘MAGA all the way’ Bruce Blakeman, who’s literally campaigning with Trump himself, jacked up property taxes and let violent crime spike to decade highs on his watch—and that’s what we continue to see voters respond to," he said.
Blakeman responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
“All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul. This poll is always off and continues to be off. We know and she knows this race is neck and neck. Kathy Hochul is desperate for people to believe that she is way ahead when she knows that her high taxes, soaring electric bills, and increased crime have made her the worst governor in America,” Blakeman said.
Newsweek also reached out to Hochul’s campaign for comment via email.
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What Do Other Polls and Forecasts Show?
A co/efficient poll, which surveyed 1,085 likely voters June 30-July 2, showed Hochul up 6 points, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
An Echelon Insights poll, conducted among 500 registered voters March 24-26, showed Hochul up 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
The race is considered to be safe and solid Democratic by forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Hochul is also favored in prediction markets. Her chances of victory stood at 94 percent on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Wednesday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
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Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Some Democrats believed Hochul would be vulnerable in a Democratic primary, and Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado sought to launch a primary against her. However, he ultimately dropped out, allowing Hochul to win renomination.
Hochul also received the endorsement of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
“New Yorkers deserve leaders who believe in transformation. Leaders who understand that hope is inspired by a vision, and sustained by change. Governor Kathy Hochul has earned my endorsement because she has chosen to govern in that spirit. And in this moment, that choice matters,” Mamdani wrote in an opinion article for The Nation.
Viteritti said her solid relationship with Mamdani could prevent left-wing defections.
“Hochul and Mamdani understand that they need each other to govern, especially with the budget challenges ahead of them,” he said.
Progressives Surge in NYC—Could That Hurt Democrats Statewide?
The New York Democratic primaries were defined by progressive victories. Darializa Avila-Chevalier, a democratic socialist, and Brad Lander, the former New York City comptroller, defeated more moderate Democratic incumbents, while state Representative Claire Valdez, a democratic socialist, won for an open congressional seat. Other democratic socialists and progressives also won in local races.
Republicans are hoping the rise in more progressive Democrats could alienate more moderate swing voters and give them an opening to win in November. They are hoping to tie Hochul, who is viewed as a fairly mainstream Democrat, to those candidates.
Blakeman told The New York Post on Tuesday that Hochul is “doing everything that Zohran Mamdani wants her to do” because “he’s running the party now.”
Heersink said he is doubtful that these progressive victories will damage Democrats statewide.
“The midterm elections are likely to be mostly centered on voters turning out for or against the Trump administration. In gubernatorial races there is more space to show disagreements with the parties and their candidates since it doesn't involve congressional majorities. But most voters will be relatively consistent in what parties they vote for,” he said.
Is New York Becoming a Purple State?
Democratic margins have shrunk in New York, which had one of the largest rightward shifts from 2020 to 2024. Republicans made gains in New York City’s outer boroughs among Latino and Asian voters, and crime has been viewed as a major force behind Democrats’ slipping margins.
This year’s elections could help gauge whether Republicans will continue to make inroads with voters in the state or whether Democratic support can rebound.
Democrats still have a massive lead in terms of voter registration in New York. There were 6,445,605 registered Democrats and 2,994,839 registered Republicans statewide as of February 20, according to the New York State Board of Elections.
New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki’s reelection in 2002.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward Pearcey.
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