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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Representative Lauren Boebert's previous congressional district in Colorado has shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," according to the latest political analysis.
The Republican and supporter of former president Donald Trump won the Centennial State's 3rd District in 2022 by a wafer-thin 546 votes. Following that victory, Boebert made the switch to run in the neighboring 4th District, where she aims to fill the seat left empty by Republican Representative Ken Buck, who retired this year.
The district is the most Republican in the state, according to a Cook Partisan Voting Index last year, which graded it R+13, compared with the 3rd District's R+7 rating. The last time a Democrat won in the 4th district was Betsy Markey in 2008.
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While polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill suggest that Boebert is favored to win and she enjoys the endorsement of Trump, GOP fortunes in her old district have dipped days before voters go the polls, according to the Cook Political Report.
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Boebert is ahead in her race but the New Republic reported "that seems to be mostly thanks to the heavily Republican makeup of the district, rather than any tactful campaigning." The outlet had initially reported that she had lost ground in Colorado's 4th Congressional District, which it has since corrected.
Newsweek has contacted Boebert's team for comment.
Boebert's Democratic opponent is Trisha Calvarese, a former speechwriter for the National Science Foundation. Calvarese said that Boebert had "melted down" during a debate in September between the pair where the Republican was challenged on votes against veterans' benefits.
Calvarese posted on X that Boebert was left "floundering to try to defend her disgraceful record on ceterans," adding that she had "no explanation as to why she missed crucial house votes."
Calvarese was boosted by news that she had raised more than half a million dollars in the first half of October, according to research site OpenSecrets. Her filing on October 16 showed that her campaign fundraising total had increased that month by $560,000 to $3.74 million.
This is behind Boebert, whose filing on the same day showed the Republican as having raised $4.48 million.
The race in Colorado's 4th District comes as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House of Representatives in which the GOP is defending a narrow eight-seat majority.
As of Saturday, there were 22 toss-up races across the country, according to the Cook Political Report. Ten of those seats are held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans.
Update 11/03/24, 3:30 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with a new headline and additional information. It clarifies it was Colorado's 3rd congressional district not 4th congressional district has moved to "lean Republican."
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