Blake Masters' chances of beating Mark Kelly as post-debate polls released

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Khaleda Rahman

By Khaleda Rahman

National Correspondent

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Blake Masters' chances of winning the Arizona Senate race improved after he debated opponent Sen. Mark Kelly earlier this month, according to polls.

Polls released since the October 6 debate show that one of the most important midterm contests between Kelly, a retired astronaut, and venture capitalist Masters has gotten significantly tighter, with just over a week to go until election day.

According to an average of recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Masters was trailing his rival by 1.5 points on Monday.

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On the day of the October 6 debate, the site had Kelly ahead by more than 4 percentage points, with an estimated 49 percent of the vote compared to Masters' 44.9.

Blake Masters and Sen. Mark Kelly

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But the site has predicted Masters will win the election, based on a model that assumes polls are underestimating support for Republicans.

A poll conducted by Insider Advantage on October 11 had Kelly ahead by 4 percentage points, getting an estimated 46 percent of the vote compared to Masters' 42 percent.

Another Insider Advantage poll, conducted between October 24 and 25, saw Kelly with 45 percent of the vote and Masters with 43 percent.

A Trafalgar Group/Daily Wire poll, conducted between October 16 and 17, found Masters close behind Kelly with about 46 percent of the vote compared to Kelly's 47 percent.

A Data for Progress survey between October 11 and 17 found Masters and Kelly in a dead heat, with each receiving 47 percent of the estimated vote.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight projects that Kelly is "slightly favored" to retain his Senate seat, giving him a 69 percent chance of winning the election and Masters a 31 percent chance.

The polling analysis site's forecast has changed in recent weeks. On the day of the debate, FiveThirtyEight gave Kelly an 81 percent chance of winning and Masters a 19 percent chance.

Masters won the GOP nomination with the endorsement of Donald Trump and by embracing the former president's false claims about the 2020 election being stolen.

But the Republican Party has now rallied behind Masters in a bid to broaden his appeal in a state where a third of voters are registered independents.

Former Vice President Mike Pence endorsed Masters earlier this month, describing him as one of the party's "brightest stars."

Meanwhile, Trump reportedly called Masters to complain that he didn't adequately push the false claims about the 2020 election during the debate this month.

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