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By Nick Mordowanec
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Less than a week after former President Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts in his criminal hush money case in Manhattan, a new poll shows that the verdict is likely to play a less significant role in November compared to what is affecting American voters' finances.
The economy, as in basically every presidential election, still reigns supreme among battleground-state voters ages 18 and older and across party lines in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a new survey conducted May 30-31 by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research.
Roughly 39 percent of Michigan voters surveyed said the economy remains the top issue, followed by immigration (19 percent), "something else" (16 percent) and abortion (14 percent).
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The numbers were similar in Pennsylvania, where roughly 37 percent of respondents said the economy is most important. Immigration (18 percent), abortion (16 percent) and "something else" rounded out of the top four biggest concerns.
Wisconsin respondents were more of a mixed bag, as 38 percent cared most about the economy, while immigration and abortion are tied at 15 percent. "Something else" received 14 percent.
The three states, along with others including Arizona and Georgia, are expected to decide the election rematch.
"I'm not surprised the economy is No. 1 especially as we get closer to the election," Luzmarina Garcia, an assistant political science professor at FAU, told Newsweek. "We are economic voters, and there is an overarching economic theory of how people vote, so it's not surprising."
Garcia said inflation was not asked as a standalone question to respondents, adding that voters across party lines still possess "stark splits" on second-tier issue priorities like immigration and abortion.
The poll sampled 797 adults, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. Polls were fielded both days, before and after the Trump guilty verdict.
Garcia said the immigration issue, like others, is salient and can vary over time based on political and campaign messaging. The GOP has traditionally discussed illegal immigration for years while it's viewed more as a wedge issue for Democrats, although some voters could change their minds between now and November.
"When it comes to these particular states, it's hard to say what issues can swing votes," she said.
Biden won Michigan (2.8 percent), Pennsylvania (1.2 percent) and Wisconsin (less than 1 percent) by small margins in 2020. Currently, according to this poll, Biden and Trump are tied at 45 percent in Michigan, though the incumbent has a one-point lead among likely voters. Biden trails Trump in Pennsylvania among all voters (45 percent to 43 percent) and likely voters (47 percent to 45 percent).
Biden is two points ahead in Wisconsin among all voters (40 percent to 38 percent) but trails by one point among likely voters (41 percent to 40).
The Trump verdict could impact his chances among various voting blocs heading into the November election, though young voters may not be impacted as much as the rest.
Roughly 38 percent of young voters under age 35 in the three swing states thought Trump was guilty, while 33 percent thought he shouldn't have been convicted. Another 30 percent of that demographic were unsure if Trump should have been found guilty.
Kevin Wagner, co-director of FAU's PolCom Lab and a professor of political science, said that the 18 percent of Republicans in the poll who believe Trump is guilty could be costly come the fall.
"If they stay home, it could matter in November, especially in close states like these," he said.
The overall sample included 49 percent who said Trump is guilty of wrongdoing, led by Black voters (69 percent), Hispanics (59 percent) and white voters with college degrees (50 percent).
White voters without a college degree, at roughly 40 percent, was the only group in which there was a plurality who do not believe in Trump's guilt.
Also, 54 percent of women surveyed think Trump was guilty, a 10-point difference from male respondents (44 percent).
Garcia said it's generally expected that younger voters will support Democratic candidates while older voters are more likely to vote for Republicans. However, this new survey shows 38 percent of voters aged 18-34 supporting Trump compared to 34 percent supporting Biden.
The Trump verdict is "unprecedented territory," and the fact that younger voters are "unsure" of its impact could be based on those voters' news consumption or lack thereof, or even due to the unknown impact it could have on U.S. institutions, she said.
"A lack of concern about financial crimes could just come from an undeveloped understanding or not knowing what laws preserve democracy or how to think about this since we lack context," she said. "These salient issues are clearly changing things for young voters; it could still be a group that goes either way."
Update 06/04/24, 2:58 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Luzmarina Garcia.
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