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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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The first public appearance of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in six days was greeted with mockery and further speculation about the future of his three-decade- long rule.
The health of Vladimir Putin's ally in Minsk had been the subject of intense rumors after his absence since the Victory Day parade on May 9 in Moscow's Red Square, where he skipped part of the commemorations marking the Soviet role in defeating Nazi Germany.
On Monday, Belarusian state media released a video of Lukashenko inspecting an air force installation and photos on the presidential website showed him standing in a military jacket, taking a salute from an officer.
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However, video showed him sounding hoarse and a bandage could be seen wrapped on his left hand, although when he was in Red Square last week, his right hand was bandaged. Social media users noted how stilted and uncomfortable he looked.
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"In an attempt to show he is totally not dead, Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko makes his first public appearance in nearly a week," tweeted Financial Times journalist Max Seddon. "He is talking about Russian planes and helicopters shot down last weekend, seemingly confirming this is not stock video to be released in his absence."
Belarusian news outlet Nexta, which is based in Poland, tweeted images of the Lukashenko, saying, that he will "become a new exhibit of the Museum of Wax Figures."
"Your face when you haven't died yet but you've already been made into a embalmed doll like Lenin," it added.
"Seems like Lukashenko looks even worse than Brezhnev?" tweeted the Belarusian Hajun Project, referring to the former Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev who died in 1982 and was seen as an ageing leader who visibly declined in public.
"He speaks in a very hoarse voice. Probably, he couldn't speak at all in the previous days, so (Viktor) Khrenin and (Roman) Golovchenko spoke instead of him," it added, referring to Belarus' defense minister and prime minister.
Pavel Latushka, a former government official turned opposition activist, tweeted next to the latest image of Lukashenko, "today he stood up, in order to sit in (the) Hague tomorrow!"
Latushka had cited unidentified government sources as saying Lukashenko, 68, had a viral infection with a complication of myocarditis—an inflammation of the heart muscle. Another report by the Belarusian independent news outlet Euroradio said Lukashenko was taken to an elite clinic in Minsk, without specifying further.
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Consequences for War in Ukraine
The Belarusian government has not commented on Lukashenko's health or absence, although the impact of his having a serious illness or suddenly departing would be felt not just in Belarus, but also Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Putin has kept Lukashenko in power, especially as the Belarusian leader, who has been president since 1994, resorted to a brutal crackdown in which activists and politicians were jailed.
The election in August 2020 saw Lukashenko claim 80 percent of the vote but it was viewed by the U.S. and the EU as rigged. The disputed election triggered mass protests and a brutal clampdown by Lukashenko—who was backed by Putin. Opposition politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, widely considered the real winner, went into exile.
Lukashenko has so far avoided taking a direct role in the war in Ukraine started by Putin but the Russian leader has used Belarusian territory as a staging post for his invasion.
"Russia controls Belarus, through Lukashenko," said Franak Viačorka, the chief political adviser to Tsikhanouskaya.
Viačorka told Newsweek before Lukashenko's reappearance on Monday that Putin's problems with his military resources in his faltering invasion of Ukraine means that for the Russian president, "a political crisis in Belarus will be a disaster."
"Without control over Belarus, the war for Putin becomes senseless. Through Donbas, through the east, Putin will not achieve anything in Ukraine," Viačorka said.
"They can damage cities, they can shell, bomb, but they cannot seize any big town. They cannot capture the capital (because) only from Belarus it is possible. This is why for Putin, control over Belarus and preservation of Lukashenko is crucial for winning this war."
A sudden end to Lukashenko's rule would create a legal crisis and uncertainty in Belarus but could also create an opening for democratic forces to engage with Lukashenko's circle, according to Hanna Liubakova, a journalist from Minsk, and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
"Despite the tightly controlled political system, there are still shared concerns that unite both pro-democracy and pro-regime factions, such as the independence of Belarus, peace, and economic stability," she told Newsweek.
"The current level of state terror prevents people from coming to the streets, but this can change if the regime is weakened," she said. In such a scenario, she believed that Belarus would require the support of the West, "because Russia may seek to exert influence in determining the next leader of Belarus.
"The natural movement for those pro-Russian individuals in the system would be to seek support in the Kremlin."
Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment.
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