Was Hurricane Season Worse Than Expected?

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Anna Skinner

By Anna Skinner

Associate News Editor

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With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially over, the number of hurricanes that formed this year was above average, which the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted in May.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. This year, there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The final numbers were within the range that NOAA meteorologists predicted earlier this year when they warned of an above-average season.

"The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30, showcased above-average activity, with a record-breaking ramp up following a peak-season lull," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in a post shared on X, formerly Twitter.

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Seven storms formed after September 25, the most on record for the time period. The NHC added that the season average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Was Hurricane Season Worse Than Expected?

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In May, NOAA published a forecast predicting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

"Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including 4 to 7 major hurricanes [category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher]. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges," the forecast said.

In August, the NOAA updated its forecast to 17 to 24 named storms.

The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed on June 19. The first hurricane of the season was Beryl, which made history when it became the earliest Category 5 storm on record.

Other storms also were particularly significant, with Hurricane Helene dumping 30 inches of rain in western North Carolina in late September. Shortly after Helene, Hurricane Milton formed, with the speed at which its winds strengthened among the fastest ever observed, NOAA said.

Of the 11 named storms, five made U.S. landfall: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton.

NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei told Newsweek that the most surprising aspect of the 2024 hurricane season was that the Atlantic basin went about a month during the peak of the season without a hurricane.

"We certainly weren't expecting the climatological peak of the season would be a time in which zero tropical storms formed," she said. "It's called the peak of the season for a reason."

The season peak usually occurs around September 10.

"We went about a month from mid- to late August to mid- to late September without a single storm forming in the Atlantic basin," Grow Cei said.

She attributed the lack of storms to the West African monsoon, which helps form the storms, shifting too far north to contribute to tropical storm formation. Saharan dust also contributed to the lull, she said.

Other NHC data shows that Hurricane Milton was the strongest storm, with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. The weakest storms of the season were Tropical Storm Chris and Tropical Storm Gordon, both of which had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. A tropical storm occurs when windspeeds measure between 39 mph and 73 mph.

Above-average ocean temperatures contributed to three named storms forming in November.

"Tropical cyclone activity this November was above average in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin," the NHC said. "Three named storms formed during the month, include one, Rafael, that became a major hurricane. Based on the 30-year climatology [1991-2020] a tropical storm forms in November once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years."

The last named storm of the season was Tropical Storm Sara, which formed on November 14 and had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

The three unclaimed names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were Tony, Valerie and William.

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