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By Tom O'Connor
Deputy Editor, National Security and Foreign Policy
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An Iraqi official has told Newsweek that the country had no plans to send troops into neighboring Syria but was instead searching for a political resolution as a coalition of insurgents edged toward Damascus, threatening to oust longtime President Bashar al-Assad in a dramatic turn of a 13-year civil war.
"Iraq is working hard to find a balanced political solution to the recent repercussions," an Iraqi government spokesperson told Newsweek. "Iraq does not seek or think about military intervention in Syria."
At the same time, the spokesperson emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting the likely effects the upheaval could have on Iraq.
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"Everything that is happening in Syria is directly related to Iraqi national security," an Iraqi government spokesperson said, "and therefore Iraq cannot remain far from understanding the developments and studying the extent of their impact on it now and in the future."
The rapid Syrian rebel advance was launched on November 27 and has been led by the Sunni Islamist Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham group and backed by other opposition factions, including the Turkey-supported Syrian National Army. Since then, the government has suffered a series of major losses, including the capture of Aleppo, Hama and Daraa, with insurgents reportedly also seizing Homs on Saturday and closing in on Damascus despite the Syrian military's repeated assurances of a counterattack.
Russia, Iran and factions of the Tehran-led Axis of Resistance coalition, including Iraq-based Shiite Muslim militias, initially pledged support for the Syrian government. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was one of two Arab leaders, alongside United Arab Emirates (UAE) President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to convey his support for Assad at the onset of the rebel gains.
As Iraqi troops and militias bolstered positions along the 370-mile border with Syria that a decade ago was overrun by the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), the Iraqi government spokesperson emphasized that Baghdad would not tolerate any cross-border threats.
"Iraq is still an active part of the international coalition to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq," the spokesperson said. "And this gives it an international mandate to defend its security and sovereignty if any party thinks of encroaching on the Iraqi borders."
The spokesperson added: "Iraq is currently making exceptional political and diplomatic efforts with all countries neighboring Syria and with countries active in the Syrian arena to reach understandings that facilitate the formulation of agreed-upon political solutions to find a solution to the crisis in Syria."
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The remarks came a day after the top diplomats of Iraq, Iran and Syria met in Baghdad to discuss the latest developments in Syria.
During his meeting with Syrian counterpart Bassam Sabbagh, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein expressed his "deep concern" over the situation and the two "affirmed the importance of continuing consultation and coordination between the two countries to avoid the recurrence of past experiences, in addition to working to protect the regional security to ensures the stability of the region and serves common interests," according to an Iraqi readout.
The Iraqi foreign minister then traveled to Doha on Saturday to discuss the situation in Syria with his counterparts from Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Once a staunch opponent of Assad, Baghdad developed warmer ties with Damascus after the U.S.-led invasion that overthrew Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003. After a decade of violence between U.S. troops and rival Sunni and Shiite Muslim militias, ultraconservative Sunni Islamist ISIS emerged from the chaos and seized large parts of majority-Shiite Muslim Iraq and majority-Sunni Muslim Syria, which fell into civil war in 2011 amid clashes between security forces and largely Sunni Muslim rebels.
ISIS, which considers Shiite Muslims, including Assad's Alawite sect, to be apostates, were ultimately beaten back in both nations by a variety of local and regional forces, including the Iraqi and Syrian militaries, Iran-backed militias and U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. With the aid of Iran and Russia, the Syrian government also reclaimed much of its territory from rebel groups who were left largely concentrated in the northwestern province of Idlib and the outskirts of Aleppo.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is today the most powerful insurgent group in Syria and was formerly known as the Nusra Front. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, was once a close ally of late ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who previously led the Islamic State of Iraq, of which the Nusra Front was considered to be the Syrian branch.
Golani ultimately refused to merge into ISIS and rescinded ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016. He has since sought to argue that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham no longer had jihadi aspirations to extend their aims beyond the borders of Syria.
In a video message addressed to Sudani on Thursday, Golani called on the Iraqi leader not to intervene in Syria and sought to reassure him that the unrest would not extend into Iraq.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's political wing, the Syrian Salvation Government, has also sought to assuage concerns by the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who have also clashed with rebel groups and seized the eastern city of Deir Ezzor on Friday after Syrian troops abandoned their posts.
That same day, a representative of the SDF's political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council, told Newsweek that ISIS was seeking to exploit government losses to resurge in Syria.
In the remarks shared Saturday with Newsweek, the Iraqi government spokesperson urged for unity in Syria and warned against any attempts to incite further divisions.
"Iraq rejects tampering with the unity of Syrian territory and rejects the introduction of any divisive ideas, as this poses a danger to the entire region," the Iraqi government spokesperson said.
"Iraq rejects exposing the Syrian people to more suffering and pain after these long years of ordeal and diaspora," the spokespersons added. "And Iraq seriously warns against tampering with national and religious minorities or trying to incite divisions in the Syrian social fabric, and their effects on the neighborhood."
The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an Iraqi state-sponsored coalition of paramilitary forces formed to fight ISIS, also confirmed that its units were taking measures to prevent any threats from spreading to Iraq.
"There are major measures being taken by the Popular Mobilization Forces in cooperation with the rest of the Iraqi security services, the army, the police, and the Counter-Terrorism Service, in order to secure Iraq from terrorist gangs," PMF Media Director Muhannad al-Aqabi said in a statement shared with Newsweek on Saturday. "These measures began a few days ago and are still ongoing."
Aqabi said that the PMF viewed the situation with gravity but was capable of safeguarding Iraqi security.
"We in the Popular Mobilization Forces are fully prepared to confront any aggression," Aqabi said. "We have sufficient capabilities in terms of manpower and military capabilities, and we have sufficient experience to fight terrorist groups. Therefore, we are very concerned about what is happening in Syria, but it does not reach the point of fear because Iraq is completely different from Syria."
While the PMF officially reports to the Iraqi Armed Forces, a number of its units, including the Nujaba Movement and Kataib Hezbollah, have operated independently, including in rocket and drone attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. These attacks have accelerated in the midst of the 14-month war in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement, which Iran and its Axis of Resistance have supported.
Days after the spokesperson for the Nujaba Movement told Newsweek that the group viewed the Syrian rebel offensive as serving the interests of the U.S. and Israel and would commit to Assad's defense, reports emerged of hundreds of Iraqi militia fighters crossing the border into Syria.
Addressing these reports, Aqabi said "this matter does not concern the Popular Mobilization Forces," which "currently have a limited function within Iraq exclusively, and no official military force is allowed to violate the orders and instructions issued by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces."
"The factions have their own decisions and opinions," Aqabi said. "And we are committed to the instructions of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces."
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Meanwhile, the Iraqi News Agency reported Saturday that more than 1,000 Syrian troops had fled to Iraq, citing a security source. Reports have also emerged of Assad's two top allies, Iran and Russia, pulling personnel out of Syria as government control rapidly shrunk to the capital and the west coast, including the Alawite stronghold cities of Latakia and Tartous.
Following talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Turkish Foreign Minister Hikan Fidan in Doha on Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the three powers were coordinating on arranging talks between the government and opposition, including factions based in Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. He also said that Russian warplanes based in Latakia's Hmeymim Air Base remained active in targeting insurgent positions on behalf of the Syrian government.
Assad's office denied media reports that the Syrian leader had fled Damascus and said he continued to fulfill his duties from the capital in a statement issued Saturday.
Officials from the U.S., which severed diplomatic ties with the Syrian government early on into the civil war and continues to consider Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham to be a terrorist organization, have expressed concern over the developments in Syria. At the same time, they have largely cast blame on Assad, accusing him of failing to sufficiently support a political solution.
President-elect Donald Trump has also weighed in on the events that have the potential to substantially reshape the region before he takes office on January 20. Trump, who was deeply critical of the U.S. policy of supporting rebels in the early stages of Syria's civil war, issued a statement on Saturday in which he predicted a likely downfall for Assad and the expulsion of Russian forces while urging that the U.S. stay out of the conflict.
"In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT," Trump wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
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