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By Emma Marsden
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Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been increasingly mentioned as a prominent potential contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, but a newly released poll indicates she would encounter a competitive primary field.
A hypothetical Democratic primary survey conducted by The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI), between July 25-29 among 762 likely voters in Michigan, reveals former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading potential candidates with 24.2 percent support. Meanwhile, 21.7 percent of respondents remain undecided, underscoring the volatility characteristic of the race's early stages.
Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff secured second place among named candidates with 13.9 percent, closely followed by New York's Ocasio-Cortez at 10.7 percent. California Governor Gavin Newsom registered 10.0 percent, and former Vice President Kamala Harris captured 5.1 percent support. Additional contenders included Illinois Governor JB Pritzker at 3.8 percent and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 3.6 percent.
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The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 points at 95 percent confidence.
While these figures position Ocasio-Cortez as a notable presence within the party, they show her trailing several high-profile rivals in a crowded landscape. Newsweek reached out to Ocasio-Cortez’s office via email on Saturday for comment.
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Prediction Markets Show a Competitive Democratic Contest
Early prediction markets also suggest there is no clear frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Markets tracking the race on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have shown fluctuating odds among a number of possible candidates, reflecting uncertainty over who will ultimately enter the contest and how the Democratic electorate’s priorities may shift over the next two years.
While prediction markets can provide insight into public sentiment and trader expectations, they are not polls and do not represent a direct measure of voter support.
On Polymarket, it shows as of Saturday morning, that Newsom has a 19 percent chance, Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff at 14 percent, Harris with 9 percent, Buttigieg and Shapiro with 5 percent, and Pritzker with a 1 percent chance.
As of Saturday morning, on Kalshi, it shows Newsom at 18 percent, Ossoff at 15 percent, Ocasio-Cortez at 13 percent, Harris at 9.3 percent, Buttigieg at 5.5 percent, Shapiro at 4.5 percent, and Pritzker at 2.7 percent.
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Harris, who has traveled to states like Michigan and South Carolina in recent months, suggested she could run again without making a formal announcement.
“I might. I am thinking about it,” she told Reverend Al Sharpton in April after he asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028 during the National Action Network’s annual convention. Harris noted she “served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States.”
“I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires,” she said.
Newsom discussed the possibility of running in a June 2025 interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,” he said.
Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation in a conversation with David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, earlier this year.
"My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that, and so anyways...to a finer point to your question is that when you aren't attached, when you haven't been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating."
Ossoff has said he is not planning to run, telling CNN, “I am not running for president in 2028, I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”
He said he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection in Georgia this year in a race the Cook Political Report forecasts as "Lean Democratic."
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Matthew Robinson and Anthony Murray.
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