10
Loading video...
By Hollie Silverman
News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has overtaken California Governor Gavin Newsom in prediction market odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination for the first time, according to data from Polymarket highlighted Wednesday by the political-tracking account InteractivePolls.
The market showed Ocasio-Cortez at 18 percent, narrowly ahead of Newsom at 17 percent. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff ranked third at 16 percent, while former Vice President Kamala Harris stood at 8 percent.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro each came in at 5 percent.
Read More on Politics
The shift marks a notable moment in the still-early race to shape the Democratic field ahead of the 2028 election. While neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Newsom has officially launched a presidential campaign, both have long been viewed as potential contenders representing different wings of the Democratic Party.
Ocasio-Cortez is a leading progressive voice in Congress, while Newsom has emerged as one of the party's most prominent establishment figures and has frequently been mentioned as a future White House candidate.
...
Prediction markets are not scientific opinion polls and do not measure voter support directly. Instead, they reflect how traders are wagering on future political outcomes. As a result, market movements are often driven by news events, perceptions of candidate viability, and speculation about who is most likely to run and ultimately secure the nomination.
The latest move is particularly significant because Newsom had been viewed as the front-runner in many early discussions about the 2028 Democratic race. Ocasio-Cortez's rise suggests traders increasingly see her as a serious contender for the nomination, even if the primary season remains more than two years away.
Kalshi, another political prediction market, is still ranking Newsom as the favorite, with Ocasio-Cortez in second place.
Related Story
Who Framed AOC?
How AOC's Rise Reflects the Democratic Party's Divide
Ocasio-Cortez's move to the top of the Polymarket standings is likely to intensify discussion about the Democratic Party's ideological direction heading into 2028.
The New York congresswoman has become one of the country's most recognizable progressive leaders, championing policies such as Medicare for All, aggressive climate action and expanded social programs. Newsom, by contrast, is often viewed as a leading establishment Democrat with executive experience governing the nation's most populous state.
The emergence of Ocasio-Cortez, Newsom and Ossoff as the top three contenders in prediction markets suggests traders see a competitive battle between different wings and generations of the party.
While the eventual field remains uncertain, the latest odds indicate there is no clear consensus favorite among Democratic observers nearly two years before the nomination contest begins.
...
Why Prediction Markets Are Drawing Attention
Political prediction markets have increasingly become a closely watched barometer of campaign sentiment because they update in real time as traders react to news and political developments.
Unlike traditional polls, which survey voters, markets such as Polymarket reflect where participants are willing to place money on future outcomes.
Still, analysts caution against treating prediction markets as forecasts of election results. Market prices can shift rapidly based on media attention, emerging narratives or speculation about potential candidates entering the race.
The fact that Ocasio-Cortez now leads on Polymarket while Newsom remains ahead on Kalshi highlights how different prediction platforms can produce different snapshots of the political landscape.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Commander and Sam Wilson.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines