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Darline Graham won the Republican Party’s nomination in South Carolina’s Senate race on Tuesday and will now face off against Democrat Annie Andrews in the November general election to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham.
Graham, endorsed by President Donald Trump, defeated Representative Ralph Norman in the Republican primary, winning roughly 52 percent of the vote, according to the Associated Press, which called the race for Graham at 9:01 p.m. ET Tuesday.
In her victory speech, Graham said that people are moving to South Carolina in droves to get away from democratic socialists. "We cannot and must not allow democratic socialists to gain a foothold in our conservative state like South Carolina," she said.
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Norman in his concession speech said that he really hates the loss "for the state." He mentioned Trump's involvement backing Graham, saying that it's the president's "right," but later added, "I never understood why he got in this race." He also said that he will support Graham as best as he can.
The South Carolina special primary election was held after Lindsey Graham, who had represented the state in the Senate since 2003, died on July 11 from an aortic dissection. He was up for reelection this year and won the party’s nomination in June, so his death required Republicans to select a new candidate. At Trump's recommendation, Republican Governor Henry McMaster had appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham, to fill the seat through the end of the current term.
Andrews secured the Democratic nomination in June. South Carolina is a difficult state for Democrats, having backed Trump by 18 points in 2024. But Democrats believe the race could become more competitive as the president’s approval rating falls nationwide amid cost-of-living and broader economic concerns.
Andrews previously told Newsweek she believes the seat could flip this year.
“We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising and building our war chest and getting us ready to compete against whoever emerges from this Republican primary,” she said in an interview earlier in August.
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Republican candidates, she said, have been racing “to the right” to prove loyalty to Trump, adding that she believes the administration has not done enough to address economic concerns like gas prices, making the seat more of a potential flip.
“In this environment, this change election, this anti-incumbency environment, people are looking for political outsiders,” she said.
Annie Andrews’ Chances of Flipping South Carolina Senate Seat
Polling of the race has been limited following Lindsey Graham’s death.
The Andrews campaign on Wednesday released a new internal poll showing a tied race against Darline Graham, at 41 percent apiece. It was conducted by Impact Research, a Democratic-aligned firm, and surveyed 700 likely voters from August 18 to 24. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
It found that Andrews’ favorability stood at 36 percent, while 21 percent viewed her unfavorably. Meanwhile, 31 percent of respondents said they viewed Graham favorably, compared to 49 percent who viewed her unfavorably.
Notably, internal polls are not always seen as reliable as independent polling, as they can be released selectively.
Andrews’ campaign released an internal poll showing a tight race, but no independent surveys have been made public to back that up; independent polling is generally seen as more reliable than internal polling.
Prior to Graham’s death, an internal poll released by the Andrews campaign also showed a close race, with Graham leading by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent. Impact Research conducted the poll among 700 likely voters from June 17 to 22, 2026.
Nonpartisan pollsters have not released any public polling on the race.
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Exclusive: Annie Andrews on How Lindsey Graham’s Death Shifted Senate Race
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets give Republicans a large advantage.
Republicans had about an 88 percent chance of winning the seat on Kalshi and an 87 percent chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday evening.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball favor Republicans, both classifying the race as solid or safe for the GOP.
South Carolina Leans Republican, But Dems See Opportunity
Democrats face an uphill battle to flip South Carolina, which has become a reliably Republican state over the past few decades.
At the presidential level, South Carolina last voted for a Democratic candidate—former President Jimmy Carter—in 1976 and has given Republicans double-digit victories in recent cycles. Trump won by 18 points in 2024, nearly 12 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2016. The state backed Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and John McCain by 9 points in 2008.
South Carolina last elected a Democratic senator in 1998, when it sent Ernest Hollings to Congress’ upper chamber.
Democrats have tried to make the state competitive in recent cycles, and they generally have a high floor but low ceiling there. The Palmetto State is home to a high population of Black voters, and cities like Charleston and Columbia are more friendly to Democrats. But the more rural areas and suburbs, as well as a high level of racial polarization, have continued to give an advantage to the GOP.
Democrats have tried to make the state competitive in recent cycles but have fallen short.
In 2020, Democrat Jaime Harrison drew significant media attention and fundraising in his bid to unseat Graham but lost by about 10 points. In 2018, the most recent “blue wave” election cycle, McMaster won by 8 points, a relatively close race by South Carolina standards.
Democrats, however, believe that 2026 is a notably different environment that will be much worse for Republicans due to Trump’s approval rating, which has reached record lows in recent national polls.
For instance, disapproval of Trump surged to a record high in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday, with 65 percent of respondents saying they disapprove of the president’s job performance. Thirty-three percent, meanwhile, said they approve of Trump.
According to Civiqs polling, 42 percent of South Carolina residents approve of Trump, while 51 percent disapprove, as of Monday in their approval rating tracker, which has surveyed 125,771 adults nationwide.
Democrats believe Trump’s approval-rating woes could let them expand the electoral battleground and compete in more conservative territory, though Republicans and forecasters still believe the state is likely to remain in Republican hands after the November midterms.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon, Sam Wilson and Anna Commander
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