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By Joe Edwards
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Presidential historian Allan Lichtman has identified two potential weak spots in Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign for the White House.
In a YouTube livestream on Tuesday, Lichtman said "I've been saying for some time that the two foreign policy keys are shaky. I haven't made a final call on them, but they are probably the shakiest keys."
In a previous interview with Newsweek, he said there were four keys he had yet to definitively call. Including the two aforementioned, these were the third party and social unrest keys.
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Lichtman rose to prominence for his election model known as "The Keys to the White House," which he has used to issue correct predictions for nine out of the last 10 presidential elections. His track record has earned him the nickname "Nostradamus," after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance, though some have questioned the reliability of the model.
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The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the ruling party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or less be false, that party is expected to win.
The keys Lichtman referred to in his most recent livestream were keys 10 and 11, which he previously told Newsweek were "leaning false," in part due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the U.S.' stance on the Israel-Hamas war, which spawned waves of protests across the country.
Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment via email outside of standard working hours.
The professor is yet to make a formal prediction as to who will prevail come November.
"I've not made a final prediction. I want to make that crystal clear because I'm often misinterpreted that way. I haven't predicted Harris to win or lose. I will make that prediction right after, likely, the Democratic Convention, but three of the four uncalled keys would have to fall [for Harris to lose]," Lichtman told Newsweek.
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