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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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For the first time in almost 20 years, Alaska appears to be leaning toward electing a Democratic Party candidate to the United States Senate, after a key indicator moved the state from a toss-up.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, based out of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, moved the Alaska race to "Leans Democratic" from its previous "toss-up" ranking, while demoting South Carolina from a safe Republican seat to a likely one.
The Alaska shift is notable as the last time the state looked likely to vote blue was in 2008, when Democrat Mark Begich won after incumbent GOP Senator Ted Stevens was indicted on seven felony counts before Election Day.
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Tuesday's shift reflects current Democratic candidate Mary Peltola's growing lead in recent polling, despite incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan's appearances alongside President Donald Trump for a major investment announcement for the state, and a rally with Vice President JD Vance on Monday.
"Alaska is impacted by the good Democratic environment just like so many other states are, and Peltola is a strong challenger,"
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek. "Additionally, Alaska has a top-four, ranked choice voting system that wasn't in place in 2020, and the structure of the ballot (Peltola is the only Democrat) likely aids her as well."
While Sullivan's strong relationship with Trump appeared to boost his reelection campaign in 2020, souring approval ratings for the president in recent months could now drag on the incumbent's chances of a third term.
Newsweek reached out to the Peltola and Sullivan campaigns via email for comment.
Mary Peltola Vs. Dan Sullivan: What Latest Polls Show
Polling released Monday from the New York Times/Siena showed Peltola with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Sullivan at 43 percent.
Her 7-point lead is the largest of the campaign so far, and the results follow reporting by the Times that staffers had faced angry outbursts from Peltola while she was a Congresswoman. Her campaign had downplayed the incidents, saying she was grieving for her husband and mother at the time, having lost them both within a few months.
Peltola boasted about the latest result on social media, writing on X, "In June, we were down by 2 points. This month, in the very same poll, we’re up by 7. Alaska, we can win this."
Other recent polling has shown Peltola and Sullivan neck and neck in the race for the seat.
A Quantus Insight poll conducted between September 28-30 among 758 likely voters gave Sullivan 46.1 percent of the vote and Peltola 45.5 percent—a 0.6-point difference that was far smaller than the survey’s roughly 8-point margin of error. Neither candidate, the poll concluded, held "a measurable lead" with only a few weeks to go before the election.
Another poll, conducted by Republican pollster Trafalgar Group September 22-24 among 1,079 likely voters, placed Sullivan in the lead by 1 point, while one conducted by co/efficient September 14-17 among 799 likely voters gave the Senator a +2 margin.
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JD Vance in Alaska: Takeaways
During the rally Monday night, Vance touted Sullivan's record, while accusing Democrats of being "obsessed" with Alaska.
"AOC and Kamala Harris and the rest of them. They see the Last Frontier as their last best hope to take America in a far-left direction, to impeach Donald Trump, to turn off the energy projects that we're building all across this state, and to throttle this state and this country's incredible progress," Vance said.
Vance said Sullivan was one of the best people he had served with during his tenure in the Senate, saying he cares about showing up for the people of Alaska.
During the event, Sullivan referenced the key issues facing voters in his state and around the United States: energy costs.
"I want to start by acknowledging some obvious things. We have some challenges facing us. The biggest challenge, I think certainly in the interior and a lot around the state, is that we are experiencing very high costs of energy," the senator said, adding that "too many families" were struggling.
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James Carville Defends Mary Peltola. Will Alaska Voters Do the Same?
The vice president announced another energy project for Alaska, the Railbelt Transmission Project, which he said would mean $400 million would be invested to build out the state's power grid. Vance said this would reduce power costs.
Peltola has placed the blame for Alaska's higher energy costs, including gas, on Sullivan, saying he has voted repeatedly in favor of the U.S. war with Iran.
"Across Alaska, hardworking families are being pushed past the breaking point, unable to cover the bills and forced to choose between food and fuel," she posted to X Monday. "The Last Frontier needs a leader fighting to lower costs, not one voting for the war that's raising them."
Trump's Approval Rating in Alaska
The president's approval rating is underwater in Alaska, despite the state's longtime Republican lean and a recently announced energy investment from South Korea, which Trump outlined in the Oval Office alongside Sullivan last month.
While Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, his net approval rating has been negative since September 2025. Civiqs shows 54 percent of Alaskans disapprove of his job performance, compared with 39 percent who approve.
Trump's declining approval rating is not unique to this GOP stronghold, with Iowa, Texas, and Ohio all showing a significant drop compared to his 2024 popularity.
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Why the Alaska Senate Race Matters in the 2026 Midterms
Alaska matters because of the state's dramatic shift among voters in recent months, which has led Democrats to believe they could win in a state where they haven't secured a Senate seat in 18 years.
The seat could be one of a handful of key seats Democrats can win to take back control of the chamber from Republicans. Currently, the party would need to win four seats to do this, with Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Texas also seen as potential flips.
The Republican Party has pushed back on the idea that Democrats will secure victory, arguing that polling favors Democrats and that GOP lawmakers will deliver on the president's 2024 promises.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
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