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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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A final poll released just hours before South Carolina Republicans head to the ballot box suggests the state's gubernatorial runoff may already be tilting decisively toward Attorney General Alan Wilson.
An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted June 19-20 among 800 likely Republican runoff voters shows Wilson with 61 percent support compared to 29 percent for Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, with another 10 percent undecided.
Late movement toward Wilson could decide the nomination outright in a low-turnout runoff where small shifts carry outsize weight. Both candidates have been endorsed by President Donald Trump, blunting the traditional impact of his backing and turning the race into a test of organization and turnout rather than ideological alignment.
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Newsweek contacted Wilson's campaign for comment via email on Tuesday morning.
Key Points
- An InsiderAdvantage poll shows Wilson with 61 percent support, Evette with 29 percent and 10 percent undecided.
- Earlier polling averages before the first primary suggested a fragmented field with no runaway leader.
- Prediction markets now overwhelmingly favor Wilson, pricing his chances above 98 percent.
- South Carolina remains a solid Republican state, meaning Tuesday's winner is likely favored in November.
How the Primary Unfolded
Tuesday's contest follows a crowded June 9 primary where no candidate secured a majority, forcing a second round between the top two finishers.
Runoffs often hinge on consolidation of support from eliminated candidates, making late polling especially significant. In the primary, Evette received 28.9 percent of the vote to Wilson's 26.1 percent. But since then, Representatives Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman—who failed to advance to the runoff after securing 12.1 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively—have rallied around Wilson.
Among Evette's endorsers is outgoing Governor Henry McMaster, who assumed office in 2017 and is term-limited from seeking reelection.
A spokesperson for the Evette campaign told Newsweek that voters still face a "crystal clear" choice, framing the runoff as one between "a proven business leader and conservative fighter" and "a career politician who's been bankrolled by taxpayer dollars for 16 years."
They added that the campaign's strategy, which "hasn't changed," has focused on outreach to voters across all 46 counties, with Evette continuing to meet voters, "listen to their concerns," highlight the importance of turnout in a low-profile runoff and promote her "conservative vision to move South Carolina forward" in the final stretch before Election Day.
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What the InsiderAdvantage Poll Shows
The most recent snapshot of the race comes from an InsiderAdvantage poll that used a mixed-mode text and panel methodology. The survey was weighted by age, race and gender, and it reported a margin of error of 3.46 percent.
The poll showed the following:
- Alan Wilson: 61 percent
- Pamela Evette: 29 percent
- Undecided: 10 percent
That margin—more than 30 points—marks a dramatic shift from the earlier stages of the race.
This lead suggests a late consolidation effect, where voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round have largely coalesced around Wilson.
Importantly, even if undecided voters were to break decisively toward Evette, the deficit would be difficult to overcome without turnout asymmetries.
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What Polling Averages Show
Before that initial primary vote, polling averages pointed to a tightly divided field with no dominant front-runner:
- RealClearPolitics (June 1–7 average): Evette 20.2, Wilson 18.2
- Race to the White House (through June 6): Evette 19.3, Wilson 17.6
- Decision Desk HQ (through June 7): Evette 19.6, Wilson 18.5
- 270toWin (June 2–8): Wilson narrowly ahead at 18.8 to Evette's 18.7
- FiftyPlusOne (through June 7): Evette 20.1, Wilson 17.4
The overall average showed the following:
- Evette: 19.6 percent
- Wilson: 18.1 percent
- Margin: Evette +1.5 percentage points
These figures illustrate how fragmented the race was heading into the first round, with multiple candidates splitting the vote and no clear consensus choice.
It represents a classic multicandidate primary dynamic, with vote dispersion masking underlying coalition strength.
Once weaker candidates are eliminated, support tends to condense quickly—often benefiting the candidate with broader acceptability rather than the strongest initial base.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets—platforms where traders buy and sell contracts based on political outcomes—are now signaling an almost certain Wilson victory.
On Kalshi:
- Wilson priced at roughly 98.4 percent probability
- Evette 1.5 percent
On Polymarket:
- Wilson about 98 percent
- Evette effectively negligible
These markets aggregate real-time sentiment, incorporating not only polling but also news flow, campaign signals and trader expectations.
In theory, prediction markets can outperform traditional polling averages because they synthesize diverse information streams. However, they also have limitations:
- Liquidity varies, meaning prices can be sensitive to relatively small trades.
- Participants may not be representative of the voting population.
- Late-breaking turnout dynamics are difficult to model accurately.
Still, when markets move this decisively, they typically reflect a widely shared expectation of the outcome.
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What Forecasters Say About the General Election
Looking beyond the runoff, forecasters are aligned in viewing South Carolina as safely Republican:
- Inside Elections: Solid Republican
- Race to the White House: Likely Republican
- RealClearPolitics: Likely Republican
- Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
- Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
That consensus reinforces the stakes of Tuesday's vote. In practical terms, the GOP primary winner enters the general election as the clear favorite against the Democratic nominee. State Representative Jermaine Johnson, who won his party's primary outright with 59.7 percent of the vote, is hoping to be the first Democratic governor elected in South Carolina since 1998.
What Happens Next
Taken together, the data points toward a race that may already be decided in structural terms.
Still, runoffs are low-turnout contests. That creates space—however narrow—for surprises driven by mobilization rather than persuasion.
Polls are open across South Carolina from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and if there is uncertainty left in this race, it lies not in voter preference but in who shows up.
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