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By Anna Rahmanan
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Democrats critical of Israel's war in Gaza won major congressional races Tuesday, including two Senate contests in Michigan and Maine.
This dealt a significant setback to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and raised questions about its ability to shape the Democratic Party's position on Israel.
The most consequential result came in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers, despite a multimillion-dollar effort by AIPAC's super PAC to prevent him from becoming the Democratic nominee.
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In Maine, Troy Jackson defeated Republican Senator Susan Collins, another setback for the pro-Israel organization, whose political action committee had supported Collins.
Together, the victories suggest that opposition to unconditional American military assistance to Israel is becoming less of an electoral obstacle for Democratic candidates, including those competing in politically divided states.
The results also point to a broader shift in U.S.-Israel relations that extends beyond the midterms. Bar-Ilan University political scientist Jonathan Rynhold, says three pillars have traditionally sustained the relationship: bipartisan political support; the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Congress; and Israel's strategic importance to the United States.
Rynhold argues that the first has largely collapsed, the second has been substantially weakened and the third remains intact, although growing numbers in both parties are questioning whether Israel's military power is being used in American interests.
The results also present a more complicated picture of AIPAC's influence: the organization and its allies defeated several prominent critics of Israel during the primaries, while many successful Democratic candidates campaigned primarily on economic issues.
Michigan Delivers AIPAC's Biggest Setback
El-Sayed's victory carries particular significance because of the scale of the effort to defeat him before the general election.
According to the research compiled for this article, AIPAC's United Democracy Project (UDP) spent approximately $30.6 million during Michigan's Democratic primary; this includes roughly $20.1 million opposing El-Sayed and $10.5 million supporting his more moderate rival, Representative Haley Stevens. Those figures still require reconciliation with Federal Election Commission independent expenditure records.
El-Sayed subsequently defeated Rogers in the general election, becoming the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.
His success offers evidence that opposition to U.S. military assistance to Israel need not prevent a progressive Democrat from winning statewide. Michigan had voted for Donald Trump in 2024, making the outcome especially relevant to Democrats considering how to compete in swing states.
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Bend the Arc CEO Jamie Beran, whose Jewish progressive organization supported the broader political movement, told Newsweek that voters had rejected attempts to divide communities over Israel.
"AIPAC, tech bros and other special interests spent millions trying to defeat candidates like Dr. Abdul El-Sayed because he was critical of our tax dollars being used for unconditional military aid to Israel’s government," Beran said.
She added: "This is a sign that the politics of fear are losing their grip to something stronger: communities organizing together for a future where all of us are safe."
The result does not establish how many voters shared El-Sayed's position on Israel. After all, his campaign also emphasized health care, living costs and corporate influence, issues that may have been more decisive in November.
Israel Critics Expand Their Congressional Presence
The Michigan result was accompanied by a broader group of Democrats whose positions on Israel depart from traditional bipartisan support for military assistance.
In New York, Brad Lander won the 10th Congressional District after defeating incumbent Dan Goldman in the Democratic primary. Lander describes himself as a liberal Zionist and supports restrictions on military assistance, distinguishing his position from candidates who reject Zionism outright.
Other candidates identified in the election research include Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York, Adam Hamawy and Analilia Mejia in New Jersey, Donavan McKinney in Michigan, Melat Kiros in Colorado, Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania and Daniel Biss in Illinois.
Their positions vary considerably: some support ending all U.S. military assistance to Israel, while others favor restricting offensive weapons transfers. Biss, who won Illinois' Ninth District, supports conditions on assistance but has declined to describe Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide.
These distinctions also matter when assessing AIPAC's record. Several candidates, including Valdez, Hamawy, Kiros and Rabb, won their primaries without confirmed AIPAC spending against them. Their victories therefore cannot automatically be counted as defeats for the organization.
In California, Aisha Wahab was leading Melissa Hernandez in their rematch for the 14th District. Wahab had already defeated Hernandez in an August special election involving substantial spending by pro-Israel groups. She is already serving in Congress, as is Mejia, making their full-term elections different from the arrival of new lawmakers.
AIPAC's Primary Victories Complicate the Picture
AIPAC nevertheless demonstrated considerable influence during the 2026 primary season.
The organization's successful interventions, as identified in the election research, included contests involving Republican Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Democrats Cori Bush in Missouri, Kat Abughazaleh and Junaid Ahmed in Illinois, and Nida Allam in North Carolina.
Those results indicate that AIPAC and allied organizations retained the ability to shape individual nominations, particularly in contests where outside spending could influence relatively small primary electorates.
The contrast with November is significant. AIPAC could help defeat candidates in primaries, but the victories of El-Sayed and Jackson suggest its preferences did not necessarily predict which Democrats could win general elections.
Rynhold told Newsweek that the results exposed a generational problem for supporters of the U.S.-Israel relationship.
He said older Democrats remained broadly sympathetic to Israel, despite their opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Younger Democrats had formed their political attitudes during Netanyahu's long period in power and his association with Trump.
For Rynhold, this generational divide may prove harder to reverse than the political damage associated with any particular Israeli government. A change in leadership or policy could restore some support among older Democrats, he argued. However, younger voters' attitudes have been shaped by years of confrontation between Netanyahu and Democratic leaders, his close association with Trump and Israel's military response to the October 7 attacks.
Rynhold also cautioned against interpreting the results as a wholesale rejection of AIPAC.
He noted that moderate Democrats had won important competitive races, often campaigning on domestic economic issues, and said they were unlikely to prioritize confrontation over Israel.
Rynhold's assessment points to a distinction between AIPAC's declining influence within parts of the Democratic electorate and its continuing relationships with lawmakers who support the U.S.-Israel alliance.
What the Results Mean for US Aid to Israel
The immediate implications for American military assistance remain uncertain.
Even an enlarged group of lawmakers favoring restrictions would need sufficient congressional support to change appropriations or arms-transfer policy. Rynhold argued that presidential authority over foreign and defense policy would limit the practical consequences over the next two years.
The longer-term question concerns the durability of bipartisan support for Israel.
If newly elected Democrats turn their campaign positions into legislative proposals and win support from colleagues who previously backed unconditional assistance, Tuesday's results could mark the beginning of a more consequential change in Congress.
If moderate Democrats continue to prioritize economic issues and maintain support for military cooperation, AIPAC could retain substantial influence despite its electoral setbacks.
The first test will come when the new Congress considers military assistance and arms transfers to Israel, revealing whether the election results have changed the votes available to supporters and opponents of those policies.
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