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By Joe Edwards
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The final polls heading into the midterms point to a competitive Michigan Senate race, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding an advantage over Republican Mike Rogers. Voters both in the Great Lakes State and nationally are heading to the polls to decide the balance of power in Congress.
Democrat El-Sayed, a former public health official, is facing off against Republican Mike Rogers, a former Representative and State Senator for the crucial Senate seat.
El-Sayed led in all recent surveys, though the size of his advantage varied considerably between pollsters—from 11 percentage points in a New York Times/Siena survey published Sunday, to just one point in an October Insider Advantage poll.
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Some of El-Sayed’s leads were also within the respective polls’ margins of error.
Michigan has emerged as one of the country’s most closely contested battlegrounds, backing Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump again in 2024. Trump carried the state by about 1.4 percentage points in 2024, while Democrat Elissa Slotkin won its other Senate seat by less than one point that year.
More than 1.8 million Michiganders have already cast their ballots through early voting, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers: What Final Polls Show
Although El-Sayed led in all recent surveys, his advantage varied widely between pollsters and was within the margin of error in some of them.
Among the latest was a Poll Vault/Emerson survey, conducted October 31 to November 1, which found 51 percent support for El-Sayed and 45 percent for Rogers. It was conducted among 500 likely voters and had a 4.4 percent margin of error, according to RealClearPolitics.
An AtlasIntel poll placed El-Sayed at 54 percent and Rogers at 46 percent support. The survey was conducted among 1,316 likely voters between October 28 and November 1, with a 3-point margin of error.
A New York Times/Siena survey published Sunday gave El-Sayed the clearest lead compared to other recent polls, placing the Democrat ahead by a considerable 11 points, 53 to 42.
It was conducted among 1,011 voters on cellular and landline telephones from October 23 to November 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
A YouGov survey of 2,093 likely voters conducted online October 26 to 29 put El-Sayed at 51 percent support, and Rogers at 47 percent support. It had a 3-point margin of error.
El-Sayed was given 49 percent support and Rogers at 42 percent in a CNN poll released Thursday. The survey was conducted among 768 likely voters from October 20 to 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Insider Advantage gave El-Sayed a much narrower lead of just one point, well within the poll’s 2.8-point margin of error. It had El-Sayed at 47 percent, Rogers at 46 percent, and was conducted among 1,200 likely voters from October 21 to 22.
An earlier Marist poll conducted from October 15 to 18 found El-Sayed leading 50 percent to 48 percent among 1,185 registered voters, with a 4.3-point margin of error.
RealClearPolling’s average, which includes surveys not featured in this article, gives El-Sayed a 5.3-point lead, as of Tuesday morning.
The prediction markets are more bullish on El-Sayed. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi give him an 81 percent chance of winning as of Tuesday morning.
Election analyzers appear less confident, however. Cook Political Report rates Michigan’s Senate race as Lean Democrat, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Leans Democratic and Inside Elections places it in the Tilt Democratic category.
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Why Michigan Matters in the Battle for the Senate
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning the Democratic Party will need a net gain of four seats to take control. A victory for El-Sayed would allow Democrats to defend the seat as they target other Republican-held battlegrounds including Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. A Rogers win would give the GOP a further advantage and force Democrats to make up additional ground elsewhere.
Taken together, the final polls suggest El-Sayed enters Election Day with a lead. But widely differing margins and several close results leave Rogers with a plausible path to victory while offering no guarantee of the final outcome.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Daniel Orton and James Debens
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Update, 11/3/26 5:45 a.m. ET: this article was updated with further poll information.
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