By Hugh Cameron
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Recent speculation around a possible retirement by Justice Samuel Alito has revived a familiar question in Washington: could President Donald Trump secure a fourth Supreme Court appointment during his presidency?
Trump himself has leaned into that possibility. “In theory, it’s two or three, they tell me—if you just read statistics—could be two, could be three, could be one,” he said in a recent interview. “I don’t know. I’m prepared to do it. But when you mention Alito, he is a great justice.”
While no justice has confirmed plans to step down, historical patterns help explain why Trump’s remarks are being taken seriously. Since 1945, Supreme Court vacancies have opened roughly once every two to three years on average, making another opening before the end of Trump’s term in 2029 entirely plausible—even without a retirement announcement.
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The 76-year-old Alito, a conservative stalwart nominated by President George W. Bush, has become the focus of the chatter following a recent hospitalization and renewed attention on his long tenure on the court. A Supreme Court spokesperson told CNN the hospitalization was undertaken “out of an abundance of caution,” and Alito returned to work days later. He has given no indication he plans to retire.
Justice Clarence Thomas, the court’s longest‑serving current member and a year older than Alito, is sometimes mentioned in broader discussions about court turnover. But, like Alito, Thomas has not publicly suggested he is considering stepping aside.
The most recent Supreme Court vacancy came in 2022, when Justice Stephen Breyer stepped down after nearly three decades on the bench, allowing President Joe Biden to make his first—and only—appointment to the court. That episode underscored how turnover can occur even absent sudden or dramatic developments.
How a Fourth Trump Appointee Would Change the Supreme Court
Trump has already had an outsized impact on the court, appointing three justices in a single four‑year term and helping lock in its current 6-3 conservative majority. That compares with one appointee for President Joe Biden and two for every president going back to Ronald Reagan.
According to Paul Collins, professor of legal studies and political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, a Trump-appointed replacement for Alito or Thomas would not immediately “shift the ideological balance of the court since it would involve replacing some of the court’s most conservative members with other very conservative judges.”
However, he told Newsweek that this would “have the effect of ensuring conservative control of the court for decades, and perhaps even generations, to come.”
Although neither Alito nor any other justice have signaled plans to retire this year, members of the GOP are seemingly treating this as a possibility, and developing plans to expedite the process before control of the Senate potentially changes hands after this year’s midterm elections.
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley told reporters last week he would recommend either Senator Ted Cruz of Texas or Utah Senator Mike Lee, both Republicans, to replace Alito. Grassley said he hoped Alito would not retire, but said his committee was “fully prepared” to confirm a replacement should this occur.
“I believe President Trump is focused on potential Supreme Court nominees he believes will be loyal to his agenda, and not just the conservative legal agenda,” Collins told Newsweek. “I think that’s why we see names like Mike Lee and Ted Cruz being mentioned, both of whom have shown a great deal of loyalty to Trump in the Senate.”
And Senate Majority Leader John Thune similarly told the Washington Examiner that the party would be ready to fast-track a replacement in the event of Alito retiring.
"That’s a contingency I think around here you always have to be prepared for. And if that were to happen, yes, we would be prepared to confirm," he said.
Trump, for his part, has said he has already compiled a shortlist and is prepared to appoint multiple justices if the opportunity arises. With only a simple majority needed for confirmation, history suggests that if another vacancy does emerge—particularly before the midterm elections—Trump would again be well positioned to reshape the court.
Update 4/23/26 9:19 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with commentary from Paul Collins.
Update 4/23/26 11:37 a.m. ET: This article was updated.
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