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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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Last week, Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 36-30 in OT on Thursday Night Football.
Tonight, in what could be the second high-scoring TNF shootout in as many weeks, we expect the running backs for both San Francisco and Seattle to be busy in the NFC West battle kicking off Week 6.
As a matter of fact, we foresee a number of players on both offenses showing out in this game. Based on the over/under of 49.5, oddsmakers agree.
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NFL Week 6 Early Picks Against The Spread For All 14 Games9 min read
Note: last week's three-leg, +385 parlay for Bucs-Falcons came through as a big winner. Let's see if we can make tonight our second consecutive highly profitable three-leg Thursday.
Below is our best Same Game Parlay for 49ers-Seahawks over at FanDuel:
- SF RB Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards (-128)
- SEA QB Geno Smith Over 14.5 rushing yards (-113)
- SEA RB Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards (-138)
This three-leg SGP is currently priced at +500.
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Best 49ers vs. Seahawks Same Game Parlay
Best SGP for SF vs. SEA: Leg 1 SF RB Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards (-128) + Leg 2 SEA QB Geno Smith Over 14.5 rushing yards (-113) + Leg 3 Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards (-138)
Below, we'll explain why we like each of these legs invidually.
The +500 odds on this mean that a $100 bet would yield a $500 payout if this SGP comes through for us.
49ers-Seahawks SGP Leg 1: Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards (-128)
Let's start with the fact that Mason has rushed for 89 yards or more in four of five games to start the year. No, we're not exactly going out on a limb here.
We're even more confident in Mason gaining at least 80 yards based on what we saw from the Seahawks run defense the last two weeks. Seattle allowed a total of 118 yards and 3 TDs on 26 carries to Lions RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Week 4. That was somewhat understandable against the Lions' excellent rushing attack.
The Giants have not been nearly as potent on the ground as the Lions this year, but they still ran wild in Seattle last week, as fifth-round rookie RB Tyrone Tracy erupted for 129 yards on 18 carries at Lumen Field.
Mason should have no trouble reaching 80 yards on the ground as long as the Niners -- who have given him at least 19 carries in four of five contests to start this season -- continue to rely on him.
49ers-Seahawks GP Leg 2: Geno Smith Over 14.5 rushing yards (-113)
Scrambling isn't the first thing that comes to mind when most fans think of the 11th-year veteran Seahawks QB. He's been opportunistic this season, though, especially the last two weeks.
Smith finished his team's loss to the Giants in Week 5 with 72 yards on four carries, including a 32-yarder. Even if you take out that long gain, Smith still finished with an impressive three carries for 40 yards.
He also took advantage of running lanes against the Lions back in Week 4, when he gained 38 yards rushing on just five attempts.
On the season, Smith, 33, has taken off for seven runs that netted at least 10 yards, including two for 30-plus yards and one of 20-plus.
There's a good chance he gets to at least 15 yards on one long scramble in this game, especially against this Niners D.
This group gave up 32 yards rushing to Minnesota's Sam Darnold in Week 2 and 83 on the ground to Arizona's Kyler Murray in Week 5, including a 50-yard TD run in the first quarter last Sunday.
49ers-Seahawks SGP Leg 3: Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards (-138)
Sticking with running backs, we trust Walker despite a disappointing, low-usage outing in Week 5.
Seattle did not stay balanced in its loss to New York, throwing the ball 40 times and running it 11 times despite decent production from its backs in limited action. Walker and Zach Charbonnet combined to pick up 30 yards on just seven carries.
Expect a heavy dose of Walker against a Niners front that has been susceptible against the run in three of the last four games. Don't just take our word for it, either -- Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb himself vowed this week to keep Walker much more involved against San Francisco.
The Vikings' Ty Chandler (10 carries, 82 yards against SF in Week 2), the Rams' Kyren Williams (24 carries, 89 yards, 2 TDs in Week 3) and the Cardinals' James Conner (19 carries, 86 yards in Week 5) all gashed San Francisco.
The only offense the San Francisco run D has help up well against since Week 1, New England, has scored just 26 points the last three weeks thanks to some of the worst O-line play in the league.
While Walker was limited in the Seahawks' loss last week, he was effective in two of the three games he's played this season. Walker had 20 carries for 103 yards and 1 TD in the season opener against a rock-solid Broncos D, and he took 12 carries for 80 yards and 3 TDs against Detroit in Week 4.
We'd be shocked if the Seahawks didn't get back to pounding away with Walker.
After all, they put up a season-low 13 points last Sunday (seven of their 20 points in the 29-20 loss to the Giants came on scoop-and-score by safety Rayshawn Jenkins) and lost the only game of the year in which Walker was active but not heavily featured.
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