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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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As has been the case for every Thursday Night Football game since Week 2, we have a divisional matchup to dive into for TNF in Week 6.
The 2-3 49ers head north from San Francisco to take on the 3-2 Seattle Seahawks on Thursday, Oct. 10, at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Both of these teams come into this game reeling. The Seahawks have now lost two straight after starting 3-0, and the 49ers lost last Sunday to divisional rival Arizona. Both the 49ers and Seahawks were heavy home favorites in their Week 5 matchups but lost outright.
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Each of these teams are going to tell themselves that this matchup is a "must-win", which adds to the intrigue. For this article, though, we will be providing the best NFL Anytime TD picks for TNF.
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-115) Caesars
This matchup against the 49ers is a great opportunity to buy low on Walker III, while also fading a slightly overrated 49ers run defense.
Walker III has played in three games this year, as he missed Weeks 2 and 3 with an oblique injury. He was very good in two of the games he's played, rushing for 103 yards in Week 1 and 80 yards in Week 4. He scored a combined four TDs in those two games as well.
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Keep in mind those two games were against the Broncos (fourth-best defensive DVOA), and the Lions (who allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry).
Last Sunday, however, things did not go well for Walker III, as he rushed for 19 yards on only five carries against the Giants. He did add another 57 yards through the air against N.Y. after going for 36 receiving yards in Week 4 against the Lions.
In general, Walker has been very good this year. He is averaging 5.46 yards per carry, which is the 11th-best of all RBs with at least 35 touches, the fifth-most yards after contact per attempt, with the highest missed tackles forced per attempt, and the second-highest explosive run percentage as well.
The 49ers run defense, meanwhile, is a unit that can be taken advantage of and is slightly overrated. They are allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game on the 12th-lowest yards per carry, but a lot of their advanced metrics show them being a below-average run defense.
DVOA has them as 17th, which is more in line with what they should be. They have the eighth-lowest stuff rate, are tied for allowing the 11th-most missed tackles per rush attempt, and have allowed the 10th-highest adjusted yards before contact as well. All this is per FantasyPoints.
After combining for four touchdowns in his first two games and having a quiet week last week, this is a great opportunity to buy back in on Walker III getting into the end zone.
Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (-115): 1 Unit
Deebo Samuel Sr. Anytime TD (+125) Fanatics
Our second Anytime Touchdown play is another buy-low opportunity, this time on Samuel Sr., who is also coming off of his worst game of the season.
After playing well in Weeks 1 and 2, it has been a quiet couple weeks for Deebo, who is ready for another explosion in this game. He scored a touchdown in Week 1 and has not scored since, but he played well the first two weeks of the season.
He had 77 combined rushing + receiving yards in Week 1 with the touchdown, and 110 receiving yards in Week 2.
Last week was his worst game of the season, by far, with 1 reception for 11 yards and three carries for nine yards. That was a game where Brandon Aiyuk blew up, so it makes sense that Samuel Sr. had a quiet game while Aiyuk went off for 147 yards.
This Thursday night trip to Seattle looks like a great matchup for Samuel, though.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Seahawks had the best defense by a lot of metrics, but that ended up being fool's gold. In Week 1, they played Denver's Bo Nix in his first NFL game, Week 2 they faced Jacoby Brissett and the putrid Patriots offense, and Week 3 brought a battle with the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa.
The last two weeks, though, they have played real NFL offenses and really struggled. They gave up 42 points to the Lions two weeks ago, and last week they let the Giants go up and down the field on them, allowing N.Y. to hold the ball for 37 minutes and pile up 420 yards of total offense.
Daniel Jones threw two TDs and went 23-of-34, and Seattle gave up 175 yards on the ground as rookie NYG RB Tyrone Tracy rushed for over seven yards per carry.
The Seahawks' biggest issue is they just cannot tackle. They missed 13 tackles in the past two weeks, which is the second-most in the NFL, and also allowed the fourth-most yards after contact.
So, the Seahawks defense is reeling, and the guess here is that the 49ers are going to make it a point to get Samuel Sr. much more involved after he essentially did nothing last week.
Samuel Sr. also has had incredible success against the Seahawks recently. The last five times he has played the Seahawks, he has finished with 157, 97, 165, 94 and 150 rushing + receiving yards, with six touchdowns in those games.
Look for Deebo Samuel Sr. to get into the end zone on Thursday Night.
Deebo Samuel Sr. Anytime Touchdown (+125): 1 Unit
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