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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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The 2026 tornado season is shaping up to be less explosive than last year, but forecasters from AccuWeather warn that large parts of the country still face a serious risk from destructive storms.
The Context
After an exceptionally active tornado year last year, weather patterns are shifting in ways that could change how severe weather unfolds this year. Even with fewer tornadoes expected overall, other dangerous threats are likely to increase, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather.
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What To Know
AccuWeather forecasters say the upcoming severe weather season will look different from last spring’s headline‑grabbing tornado outbreaks.
Forecasters point to the quick end of La Niña, which usually suppresses classic tornado setups. As it fades, conditions become more supportive of thunderstorms, raising the risk of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
While tornado numbers are expected to be closer to the historical average, conditions still favor repeated rounds of powerful thunderstorms capable of causing widespread damage. The highest risk for severe weather is expected to focus on a familiar corridor stretching from the eastern Plains into the mid‑Mississippi Valley and western Ohio Valley, particularly during March and April.
These areas are likely to see multiple storm systems rather than isolated outbreaks.
Farther north, cooler air is expected to limit severe weather early in the season across the northern Plains and Midwest, with storm activity becoming more likely later in April and May.
In the Northeast, severe thunderstorms may hold off until May or early summer.
One of the biggest differences this year is the type of damage forecasters are most concerned about. Straight‑line winds and flash flooding are expected to pose a greater threat than tornadoes in many areas. Strong wind gusts can knock down trees and power lines, sometimes causing destruction on a scale similar to tornado damage.
Clusters of thunderstorms could also grow into large wind events known as derechos, which are capable of producing damage over hundreds of miles. These types of storms tend to become more common later in the spring and into summer.
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What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus said: “There may be fewer tornadoes reported compared to last year, but that does not mean this will be a quiet severe weather season. There is an increased likelihood of severe thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Flash flooding is a big concern this year.”
He added: “Do not let your guard down this severe weather season. Flash floods and damaging wind gusts can be just as destructive as tornadoes and often impact a much larger area. Tornado reports may trend lower than last year, but it only takes one storm striking a densely populated or vulnerable community to make this a devastating season."
What Happens Next
Forecasters will continue refining their outlooks as spring approaches, with updates expected as atmospheric patterns become clearer.
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