By Giulia Carbonaro
Senior Reporter
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The U.S. population is expected to continue rising in the next three decades, though its growth pace will inevitably slow and will increasingly be supported by the number of migrants arriving in the country, according to the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
In CBO's projections, the population will grow from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million in 2054, growing by 0.4 percent per year, on average—which means it will rise at less than half the pace recorded in the country between 1974 and 2023, 0.9 percent per year.
Between 2024 and 2034, the population growth in the U.S. will slow to about 0.6 percent per year, on average, according to CBO projections. Between 2045 and 2054, it will come down to an even lower pace, 0.2 percent per year, on average.
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Starting from the year 2040, all population growth reported in the U.S. will be linked to net immigration, mainly because, the CBO says, fertility rates "remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to replace itself."
The rate of fertility, estimated at 1.67 children per woman in 2022, the most recent year for which data are available, is projected by the CBO to be 1.70 through 2054. By the same year, deaths are expected to exceed births in CBO's projections.
Such a slowdown—combined with the expected aging of the American population and workforce—could have drastic consequences on the U.S. society and economy, especially when it comes to who'll be shouldering the weight of the Social Security program.
The CBO has adjusted its previous projections on the growth of the Social Security area population, which is now expected to rise slightly faster and reach 2.4 percent in 2053. In the meantime, the number of people aged 25 to 54 is expected to grow slower than the number of people aged 65 or older and who are likely to be Social Security and Medicare recipients.
In 2024, the ratio of people aged 25 to 64 to those aged 65 or older will be 2.9 to 1, according to the CBO, while by 2054 it will be 2.2 to 1.
None of these changes are set in stone. The CBO based its projections on the available data on fertility, mortality and net immigration rates, and any future changes to the previous trends—a sudden baby boom, an unexpected rise in mortality or changes in migration flows—could affect the way things play out.
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