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By Daniella Gray
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Nearly four in 10 cancer cases diagnosed around the world in 2022 can be traced back to risks people and societies have the power to change, according to a sweeping new global study.
The analysis, published in Nature Medicine, examined 36 cancer types across 185 countries and linked today’s cancer diagnoses to how common certain risk factors were about a decade earlier. The time lag reflected the reality that cancers often take years to develop after exposure.
Of the 18.7 million new cancer cases in 2022 (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), about 7.1 million—37.8 percent—were associated with 30 modifiable risk factors.
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These include behaviors such as smoking and drinking alcohol, infections, environmental exposures and workplace risks.
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Cancer is already one of the world’s leading causes of illness and death, with more than 20 million new cases and nearly 10 million deaths recorded in 2022. If current trends hold, new cases are projected to rise by about 50 percent by 2040. Researchers said prevention will be critical to slowing that surge.
Tobacco smoking remains the single largest contributor, tied to 15.1 percent of global cancer cases. Infections followed at 10.2 percent and alcohol consumption at 3.2 percent.
Certain cancers dominated the preventable burden. Lung, stomach and cervical cancers together made up nearly half of the cases linked to modifiable risks.
The picture differs notably between men and women. In 29.7 percent of the female patients— about 2.7 million cases—cancer was associated with modifiable factors. Among men, the figure was much higher, at 45.4 percent, or 4.3 million cases.
For women globally, infections were the leading risk factor, connected to 11.5 percent of cases. Many of these involve human papillomavirus (HPV), which is known to cause cervical cancer, or Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium linked to stomach cancer. Tobacco was the next major contributor.
For men, smoking stood out as the dominant driver, associated with 23.1 percent of cancer cases, followed by infections. These risks were especially tied to lung, stomach, and liver cancers.
The study also found striking geographic differences, reflecting how lifestyles, public health systems and exposures vary worldwide.
Among women, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion of cancers linked to modifiable risks, at 38.2 percent. Northern Africa and Western Asia had the lowest, at 24.6 percent. In most other regions, roughly three in 10 cancer cases among women were considered preventable.
The variation among men was even wider. In East Asia, 57.2 percent of cancers among men were associated with modifiable risks—nearly six in 10 cases. By contrast, the figure was 28.1 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Several regions, including Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, South-East Asia, South-Central Asia, and Northern Africa and Western Asia, saw more than 40 percent of cancers among men linked to these risks.
Researchers said the findings point to clear opportunities for prevention. Tobacco control policies, vaccination and treatment programs to prevent infections, and strategies to reduce harmful alcohol use could substantially cut future cancer cases.
Paper author and epidemiologist Hanna Fink told Newsweek if she had to choose one intervention with the largest global impact, it would be to fully implement and enforce comprehensive tobacco control policies in every country.
“Tobacco remains the single largest preventable cause of cancer worldwide, responsible for around 15 percent of all new cancer cases and more than one in five cancers in men in our analysis,” she said.
“Strong tobacco control measures, including substantial tax increases, plain packaging, comprehensive advertising bans, smoke-free public spaces, and accessible cessation support, are among the most cost-effective health policies available and have an immediate effect on reducing exposures.”
Speeding up the decline in smoking over the next 10–20 years could prevent millions of cancer cases and also cut rates of heart and lung disease, Fink continued.
“Importantly, these policies also help reduce health inequalities, because smoking is increasingly concentrated in more socioeconomically disadvantaged groups,” she added.
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Reference
Fink, H., Langselius, O., Vignat, J., Rumgay, H., Rehm, J., Martinez, R. X., Santero, M., Lopez-Perez, L., Inoue, M., Zeng, H., Shield, K., Morgan, E., Ilbawi, A., & Soerjomataram, I. (2026). Global and regional cancer burden attributable to modifiable risk factors to inform prevention. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04219-7
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