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By Hugh Cameron
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A Polymarket user who earned $100,000 with a number of well-timed bets on the unfolding conflict in Iran has wagered that the U.S. will send troops into the country by the end of the month.
The account, “BulkeyBull”—a name that has reportedly changed many times—is currently sitting on a net profit of around $99,000 over the past week alone, having successfully predicted when the U.S. would first strike the country and the date that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be “out” as Iran’s supreme leader.
The accounts’ recent success led the prediction market analytics platform PredictFolio to label its owner a “suspected military insider,” and should U.S. forces enter Iran on any date this year, it estimates this could yield a payoff of $100,000.
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Why It Matters
The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran—and the millions of dollars pocketed by those who have successfully predicted different outcomes in the conflict—have heightened scrutiny of prediction markets, particularly when it comes to wagers involving death and military activity, contracts that would likely have dozens of informed actors and reward those with privileged information.
Suspected insider trading on Polymarket already led to the arrest of two Israelis in early February, and legislative pressure in the U.S. is building for greater oversight of these platforms.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of the blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps, told Newsweek that the risks of insider trading are elevated on prediction markets for a number of reasons, including those related to how the platforms operate but also the wide range of events on which users can wager.
What To Know
According to the terms of this particular Polymarket contract, bettors will only receive their winnings if active military personnel “physically enter Iran.” This applies solely to uniformed U.S. troops, including special operations forces, but intelligence operatives, contractors, advisers, diplomatic visits, or entries limited to Iranian airspace or waters do not qualify.
Trading volume is highest for the March 31 entry date, with over $2 million wagered and odds of 34 percent as of Friday morning, but over $500,000 has been bet on the longer-term timeline of December 31 with odds of 59 percent.
Saturday’s strikes on Iran—which drew $529 million in Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of the bombing—came after weeks of signals of an imminent escalation, including the U.S. surging naval forces into the region and negotiations with Iran collapsing.
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The possibility of “Epic Fury” being expanded into a boots-on-the-ground opportunity has been far less telegraphed, though the administration has not yet ruled out the involvement of America’s terrestrial forces.
“I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground—like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it,” Trump told the New York Post on Monday, adding that he could be convinced to send in U.S. forces “if they were necessary."
And during a Pentagon news briefing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that, while no American troops were currently in Iran, the U.S. would “go as far as we need to go to advance American interest.”
“You don’t have to roll 200,000 people in there and stay for 20 years,” Hegseth told reporters.
What People Are Saying
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told Newsweek: “In military or geopolitical situations, information usually doesn’t sit with one person: planning involves officials, advisers, officers, agencies, sometimes even multiple countries. So, the number of people who might know something in advance can be large. When you combine a wide circle of potential insiders with anonymous access to a market that lets you bet directly on a specific event, the temptation is obvious.”
Democratic Representative Mike Levin, responding on X to a Polymarket contract on “nuclear weapon detonation,” wrote: “I’m working on legislation to ban this permanently. War is not a casino.”
What Happens Next
There have been no confirmed cases of insider trading by U.S.-based individuals tied to the Iran conflict. However, some lawmakers have called for Congressional investigations into whether any users—in particular those who may be privy to non-public details about Epic Fury—may be profiting from this knowledge.
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