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By Dan Gooding
Associate News Editor
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Honduras President Xiomara Castro has voiced her concerns about United States' President-elect Donald Trump's plans for mass deportations, becoming another world leader who could disrupt his proposals, and Newsweek has compiled a map of countries with a similar attitude.
The New Year's Day speech, which included a threat to remove U.S. military personnel from her country, came as neighbor Guatemala indicated it would support Trump's program, and even take nationals from other Central and South American countries unwilling to help.
Newsweek reached out to the Department of Homeland Security, and the Honduras and Guatemala embassies in the U.S. for additional comment via email Monday.
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Why It Matters
At least 261,000 Hondurans are currently awaiting removal from the U.S, according to data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), making it the largest group awaiting deportation ahead of Guatemala, El Salvador and Mexico.
But any country has the sovereign right to refuse a deportation flight from a foreign country, Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, told Newsweek. So Honduras could present a problem for Trump.
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What To Know
The hundreds of thousands of Hondurans awaiting removal would potentially be Trump's easiest starting point for mass deportations, once he is back in the White House on January 20.
Speaking on national television on January 1, President Castro said she was concerned about "unnecessary reprisals" against Hondurans present in the U.S.
"Faced with a hostile attitude of mass expulsion of our brothers, we would have to consider a change of our cooperation policies with the United States, especially in the military realm," Castro said, raising the idea that U.S. forces may no longer be welcome in her country.
Castro is planning to meet with other leaders, including Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum, in the coming weeks to discuss immigration issues. Sheinbaum has signaled Mexico could accept citizens from other countries unwilling to work with the U.S.
Which countries could disrupt Trump's deportation plan?
In order to successfully remove an illegal immigrant from the U.S., their home country needs to be willing to cooperate and welcome them back.
There are several countries with which the U.S. does not have an easy relationship, meaning removals can either be slow or require alternative measures. These are often referred to as recalcitrant countries. Among them are Venezuela, Cuba, Brazil, and Nicaragua, while the relationship with Canada could also be strained by Trump's proposed tariffs, in retaliation for border policies.
"Cuba was, in many ways, the prototypical recalcitrant country, having rejected U.S. deportations since the mid-1960s and it wasn't until 2017 that the Obama administration, in its last days in office, reached a deal with Cuba to restart deportations after decades of failed efforts," Reichlin-Melnick said.
In December, Cuba's Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío raised concerns about an increase in returns, saying the incoming administration would need to comply with existing agreements.
"What we can learn from the Cuba situation, and from what has been ongoing with Venezuela in particular, is that regimes which are either opposed to the United States, or have reasons for not wanting the return of their own nationals, can use migration as a very effective tool for extracting concessions from the United States diplomatically," Reichlin-Melnick added.
The U.S. did strike an agreement with Venezuela in 2023, on the condition that President Nicolás Maduro ran a fair election. When the U.S. deemed this to not be the case, the relationship broke down.
Mexico's approach has not been especially clear, with some resistance to take back those who have been in the U.S. for several years, following tariff threats from Trump. Guatemala is open to welcoming U.S. deportees from various nations, reflecting a system adopted by the previous Trump administration, according to Reuters.
The relationship between China and the U.S. has improved in recent months, with an uptick in repatriation flights, although these numbers barely scratch the surface of those awaiting removal and Trump has been a vocal critic of the country.
What People Are Saying
Brian Hughes, Trump-Vance Transition Spokesman, told Newsweek in a statement: "The Trump Administration looks forward to engaging our Latin American partners to ensure our southern border is secure and illegal immigrants can be returned to their country of origin."
A Guatemalan official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity: "There has to be a regional response, and we want to be part of the solution."
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, at a press briefing January 3: "There will be time to speak with the United States government if these deportations really happen, but we will receive them here, we are going to receive them properly and we have a plan."
Reichlin-Melnick, told Newsweek: "The most crucial thing for people to understand about deportations is that, as they exist in an international legal framework, they are bilateral. Each country has to agree on a deportation. Any country has the sovereign right to refuse a deportation flight from a foreign country."
What's Next
Immigration advocates, ICE, and immigrants themselves will all be waiting to see what the new administration does within its first few days in office, and how Trump's actions could affect relations with other countries he wants to deport citizens to.
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