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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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More than 78 million people have cast their votes ahead of Tuesday's election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Figures collected by the University of Florida Election Lab's early voter tracker show that 42,664,880 people have voted early in person, while 35,376,421 mail-in ballots were returned as of the morning of Monday, November 4. This figure is nearly half the total 158.4 million votes cast at the 2020 election.
The data suggests that Republicans are now more willing to cast their votes early than in previous elections, instead of waiting until Election Day. In past elections, Democrats favored early in-person and mail-in voting. This shift could indicate that the so-called "red mirage," which allowed Trump to gain an early lead in several states in 2020 because Election Day votes are generally counted first, may not be prevalent this year.
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More than 14.8 million people who have already cast their ballots in the 2024 election are registered Democrats (37.9 percent), just ahead of the 14.1 million registered Republicans (36 percent). Around 10.2 million early voters are either not registered or registered with third parties. These figures do not represent actual votes and are based only on 26 states with party registration data.
In 2020, Republicans comprised 30.5 percent of total early votes cast in 20 states that tracked party registration, compared to 44.8 percent for Democrats.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.
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Early voting data also reveals that women are turning out in larger numbers than men in the six states reporting gender data—Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia—accounting for 54 percent of the votes cast.
Harris may be encouraged by figures suggesting women are currently outnumbering male voters, as she has prioritized appealing to women through issues such as protecting abortion rights.
The current early voting figures for 2024 are down from the more than 101 million people who voted early in the 2020 election, which included nearly 36 million early in-person votes and close to 66 million mail-in ballots. The COVID-19 pandemic was a major factor contributing to these higher numbers at the last election. In 2016, around 47 million people voted before Election Day or via mail-in ballots.
The University of Florida Election Lab's early voter tracker includes data from four key swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
In Arizona, 908,233 registered Republicans (40.9 percent) have already cast their votes, compared to 725,552 registered Democrats (32.7 percent). More than 584,000 votes in Arizona have come from individuals who are not registered with a party or are aligned with third parties.
More registered Republicans have also voted in Nevada than registered Democrats (406,185 to 363,406).
In Pennsylvania, a crucial state for both Harris and Trump, the majority of votes cast are from registered Democrats (971,615), with just under a third from registered Republicans (571,725).
North Carolina's early voting figures are almost equally split among registered Democrats (1,441,289), registered Republicans (1,482,061), and those not registered with either major party (1,528,842).
Jim Messina, former campaign manager for Barack Obama, noted that the early voting figures from Republicans are "a little scary" for Democrats, as GOP voters historically turn out in greater numbers on Election Day.
"But when you dig into the numbers that really matter to me—two blocks of voters: women and young voters—those two blocs are coming through for Harris," Messina told MSNBC on Sunday.
In response to Messina's remarks, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy expressed optimism about the early voting trends among Republicans, emphasizing that they are "fundamentally different" from those in 2020.
"Look to Nevada, where Republicans are outnumbering Democrats—unheard of in the early vote," McCarthy told Fox News' Laura Ingraham. "What I'm seeing is a more competitive race, and Republicans are doing better."
The University of Florida Election Lab collected early voting data by age in nine states: Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Of the nearly 18 million votes already cast in these states, 39 percent come from those aged 41 to 60, while 36 percent are from seniors aged 65 and over. Just over 16 percent of those aged 26 to 40 and around 8 percent aged 18 to 25 have also cast their votes.
Three states—New Hampshire, Alabama, and Mississippi—do not offer early voting options.
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